Brian Chesky's Latest Video on Reuters Jan 15

Sharon1014
Level 10
Sellicks Beach, Australia

Brian Chesky's Latest Video on Reuters Jan 15

Hmmm thoughts fellow hosts?  Seems guests are looking to go camping and stay with relatives instead.

 

Airbnb CEO says travel never going back to the way it was before pandemic | Reuters

 

Chesky Jan 15.JPG

 

Gotta say, Brian looks a wreck, perhaps the penny is dropping?

 

@Ute42  @Sarah977   @Ann72  @Anonymous  @Melodie-And-John0  @Cormac0  @Allen107   @Rebecca181  @Florence372  @Christine615 

 

28 Replies 28

@Sharon1014   I don't know if this will make you laugh or cry, but here's a nifty article from late 2019 predicting what trends will shape the "future of travel":

 

https://www.departures.com/travel/future-of-travel-2020

 

They didn't get it all wrong, but little could they have known how swiftly the "multigenerational family trip" and the "next generation cruise ship" would become artifacts of ancient history. That's the charm of looking back at predictions from the recent past:  we can project current trends into the future, but there's a very good chance that the biggest factor shaping the industry years or even months from now is something that hasn't happened yet (presumably dovetailing with the ongoing pandemic, which isn't just going away like magic).  

 

Will it be of an environmental nature? Economic? Political? Technological? Anyone's guess. But one thing 2020 seared deeply into our collective consciousness is the fragility of plans. We've lost the concept of the "foreseeable future" - to the point that few of us can use those words together unironically -  and some anticipation that our plans disrupted or thwarted is going to be baked into our thought process for years to come.

 

That's not necessarily a bad thing; I'd love to see all these people who cry and moan about how unfair it is that reality didn't rise to meet their expectations finally grow the F up.

 

I didn't hear anything new in Brian's video; he's always upsold the idea of a future that just happens to be Airbnb-centric and will continue to do so until he has another job. I do think  people will always want to journey to new places, but as outsiders it could be a long time before locals have any reason to welcome it.

Sharon1014
Level 10
Sellicks Beach, Australia

@Anonymous   "until he has another job😂  That made me giggle will admit.

Sarah977
Level 10
Sayulita, Mexico

This quote  jumped out at me- "Travelers are “yearning for what was taken away from them,” Chesky said".

 

Well, that really exemplifies the entitled attitude that @Anonymous mentioned: "That's not necessarily a bad thing; I'd love to see all these people who cry and moan about how unfair it is that reality didn't rise to meet their expectations finally grow the F up.

 

I really don't know if I'll be able to home-share again and it seems like it will be a long time until it's safe to do so. 

One plus about reduced travel, though, is that perhaps the environment can recover somewhat. It's already been shown that there is much less air pollution in many places without humans constantly scurrying here and there, jumping in the car to drive 2 blocks to the store. When people are staying home more, they tend to walk places nearby they used to drive to, as they need the exercise.

Ute42
Level 10
Germany

.

@Sharon1014  

 

I don't think Brian Chesky looks a wreck, but he certainly was more relaxed in previous videos. Well, we all are under some kind of tension nowadays.

 

@Anonymous  nailed it by saying that all the travelplans of everybody have become fragile. Today, You can't really foretell what the outcome of a planned travel will be. But somehow guests don't seem to understand what's going right now.

 

For a peroid of 70 years, starting from WWII (sorry @Ann72  for mentioning the war) until 2019 travelplans were predictable. In 97% of all cases Your plans became reality. These times are gone. Today, if You plan a travel a couple of months out, there only is a 50% chance that Your journey will be happening.

 

What guests expect though is, that they can make reservations months out and if it goes wrong, we, the hosts, should carry 100% of the risk and they get all their money back.

 

I had 2 groups of guests (no airbnb but direct bookings) that were renting a stay over christmas and New Year, the reservations were made early in october 2020. I told both guests that we all do not know if they will be able to actually stay here due to unpredictable government regulations. So I told them on the phone: You have to make a 50% downpayment into my account, if You can't stay here, You will lose Your downpayment and I will not get the other half of the payment. Fair enough, isn't it?

 

I asked both guests: Do You still want to make this reservation knowing full well, that You may lose Your downpayment? Both guests answered:

 

  • Yes

 

Of course I did put everything in writing, nonetheless both guest are now threatening to sue me over their downpayment. I already have a 3 page attorneys letter inhouse which is BS from A to Z. They are now trying to weasel out of what they have expressively agreed upon. Sorry, but not with Ute. I have enough money to fight this through and they will not get a dime.

 

Also, there's a group10 guys who had rented my place 7 times in the past already. They had booked an extended weekend in may 2020 for $1000. Due to government regulations their stay fell through. We moved their reservation to may 2021, so they didn't lose their downpayment but obviousely I made a loss of $500 in 2020 as they couldn't stay. I told them that, should I not be able to host them in may 2021, I will not once again move their reservation to 2022 and they may lose their entire downpayment of $500. I told them that If they don't agree to this, I will cancel their reservation and immedeately return their money. They finally agreed.

 

The way I see it: If a guest makes a reservation for my place months out, there are 2 seperate payments due:

 

  1. A reservation fee of 50%. The equivalent to this payment is, that I am holding the reservation for a limited time, not renting my place to someone else.

  2. A „You can actually stay at my place fee“ of another 50%.

 

The good news for my guests: The second fee is only due if the guests can actually stay with me. If they can't, they are saving 50%.

 

I do not understand fellowhosts that are holding reservations for a summerholliday months out under a moderate or flexible cancellation policy.

 

Have a nice day.

 

cc:  @Sarah977 @Christine615 @Cathie19 

 

Sharon1014
Level 10
Sellicks Beach, Australia

@Ute42   We've had 2 cancellations total, someone from interstate who got stuck on a temporary border closure.  Gave him a full credit against a future stay.  Another more recent one just cancelled straight up on the platform without bothering to message us first, so he got hit with the 50% penalty.   We went to strict policy after previously being flexible after we lost $3k or so of business during March- June 2020.  No regrets at all.  Pity the platform doesn't give cancelling guests the option to contact the host first to enquire about holding the credit against a future booking.  That seems to work in everyone's best interests.

@Sharon1014 I had guests that had to cancel and offered them refund but they contacted Airbnb who then asked me if i would allow them to change booking to February so had no problem changing.

Another booking was a guy with a fishing boat who had stayed before and a really nice guest, anyway day before his stay he asked to cancel as the weather turned bad, he never asked for refund but i refunded in full as will probably be back another day and he was most appreciative,

I believe in Karma and enjoy what i do and its definitely not about the money.

I doubt they’ll sue. It’s not worth the lawyers fees. Chances are it’s a courtesy threat. We had that happen on something different. Paid a lawyer to respond and poof...threats were gone.

 

I did refund a guest who booked non refundable and then cancelled the day before checkin because the family they were visiting tested positive. But it was only a few hundred dollars and she won’t be welcome to book again.

 

People are nuts. Don’t let them stress you out. They agreed to your terms and to the Airbnb terms. No court will take them seriously. They should have bought travel insurance.

@Ute42  There might come a point when enough of the market becomes so dead-set against non-refundable bookings that agencies like Airbnb quietly (ha) take away Strict cancellation policies. I think a lot of small-scale accommodation businesses would be untenable if they had to constantly accept a loss whenever a guest was restricted from traveling. Airbnb as a "belong anywhere" brand would be painted into a corner: hosts can't discriminate based on nationality, but they still expect to get paid if the guest's nationality becomes radioactive in their country.

Uugghhh @Ute42!  Highly appropriate to mention the war under the circs.  You will prevail!

 

 

 

@Ute42 

For me only opening the calendar a few months ahead at a time has meant I have not had many cancellations since my first year ... touch wood! But I kept the calendar blocked across March-July. Noting that as I have shorter tourist season, I only had two cancellations across 2020. 

Melodie-And-John0
Level 10
Munnsville, NY

@Sharon1014   Seems like the type of travel that is happening now is much like Brian is talking about, it gave me the best 2.5 months ever and 8.5 months of the worst, that shakes out as about a 30% decrease for 2020.    Bucket-lists to everywhere replaced "haven't been out of the state in my life",  those have been put back in the cleaning closet.  Fear rues the day, week and month and years to come, even when we are safe to start living again, we probably wont return to that world traveler mode again for a long time if ever. 

 

Unfortunately, science and statistical based safety and responses to pandemic is only half the dynamic in play in the question of "when will things return to normal", nothing short of a world war can destroy personal and cumulative emotional power and motivation except a pandemic.   In my not so long life, JQ public became empowered as a national, continental and world traveler for the first time in history (except for the military or wealthy). 

 

By now, My summer calendars would be half full at least, as of now, I have zero Airbnb bookings for the summer and only 1 for spring and zero for the rest of the winter.  Looks like any we do get for the coming times will be short fuse bookings, click/ boom- "here we are", add the 24 hour coolout and its not looking like a banner 2021 for Bearpath Lodging.  I was looking to retire at 62 based on our Airbnb successes over the last years, Im now rethinking that...   JR

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

@Melodie-And-John0   I agree John that many bookings that do occur going forward are going to be short notice ones.  I imagine that Airbnb has done the modelling for a variety of scenarios, most of them with not pleasant outcomes.

 

My bottom line, I just want to keep getting paid for those bookings that we do have.  No problems with payments thus far, but other hosts haven't been so lucky.  We do 2 night minimums now thanks to the extra cleaning, and gotta say that has been a big bonus, less labour, more cash and bookings continue to come in.  Ours are mostly weekends, being a beachside location and summer upon us.  Have a couple in Feb, one in March, expecting more once the summer school hols finish end of Jan and then we expect the Easter school holiday rush, after which things typically go quiet as we ease into winter.  

 

That timing should fit nicely with Airbnb's Q1 earnings report in April, which I'm expecting to be pretty horrible given Europe and US lockdowns and northern hemisphere winter.  Plan B in the chute is always a good thing.  

Michelle53
Level 10
Chicago, IL

My bookings prior to 2020 were largely event-driven. Small groups of 3 or 4 coming into town for festivals and sporting events, and family events such as weddings.  Mostly weekends, and mostly seasonal, with winter being quiet.  Mostly air travel. 

 

In 2020, of course, there was no travel during the lockdown months. Once lockdowns were lifted, though, travel picked back up pretty quickly, although it looked a bit different. More single travellers or couples, longer stays, more work-related trips. Interviews, relocations,  and the like.  Mostly driving, but some flying in.

 

In November, lockdowns started again, and travel dropped to almost zero.  But I was more or less expecting that, since we are in the winter months, now.    I've had a couple of family-related bookings. Babies born, for example. One or two people, again, mostly driving, but some flying in.

 

I recently took a booking for a festival scheduled for September, 2021.  Someone was positive enough to buy a ticket for a festival 10 months in advance. If that takes place, she will be flying in.  She's a repeat customer, and most of the cancellations I took last year indicated they would re-book with me as soon as travel becomes easier, and the events they were planning to attend make it back onto the calendar.    I have a moderate cancellation policy - I took the hit for the cancellations. But I believe the majority will be back, because we handled it all amicably. 

 

It certainly seems to me that if the opportunities are provided, once things open up, there will be people taking advantage of them. Maybe not as crammed busy as 2019, but enough to keep afloat. I do depend on the supplemental income, but I have a separate space, with its own entrance, so not so unfit for these times. 

Rebecca181
Level 10
Florence, OR

And yet, despite all of this, regarding Airbnb stock: "The average price target is $179.75 with a high forecast of $240.00 and a ... (blah, blah, blah...)".

 

My fiance spent decades making life-saving vaccines. I didn't like telling people that he was horrified by the Covid-19 genome when he saw it early last year and that he predicted it could take years for herd immunity to be achieved and for things to return to some semblance of "normal". Some of the latest variant / mutations are deeply concerning. Still, we are hoping for the best. And apparently, so is Airbnb Corporate! @Sharon1014