Update: I offered her 50% off and she passed and said she "might" come with a friend. Which left me looking at getting half my revenue for the weekend and no review. So I messaged her back and said,
"I don’t want to hold you hostage so here’s a better solution.
You can cancel if you like and get 50% back and if I rebook I will send you the other 50% through the resolution center (I’m not sure what Airbnb will do about your booking fee).
The only caveat is that you cancel right away so it has a chance to re-book and so you still qualify for a refund."
She canceled right away with that one and now it's just luck of the draw if I lose the 50% or get another full booking. I also raised the price b.c. it was ridiculously low.
In hindsight I could have said if you think you'll cancel please do so right away so I don't end up with just your 50% non-refundable booking fee. But it's like I'm asking to get her money and then another guests money not sure how that would have gone over. Bottom line I just wanted to be done with it and open it up again and see what I get. I'm pretty sure it will book.
Thanks so much for all the helpful advice!