Coronavirus fear vs reality

[Laura2592]

I am hoping this is helpful for some. We have 19 cases in Maryland and none in our county or the neighboring county, yet people are panicking in a huge way and acting like the world is coming to an end. I work for a very large bio research organization which has a much more measured, scientific and less chaos-driven response. I am happy to share some guidance and facts that we have been given.

There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold. This is not a normally fatal illness. Exposure will allow your body to build up its natural immunity but communities do not want everyone going to the doctor at once as it may overwhelm resources. You cannot get the same virus twice. You can get a mutated version of the virus but not the exact same one.

Anti-viral drugs need to be given in the first 48 hours after exposure in order to be effective. This class of drugs can have difficult side effects so if you can't pinpoint the exact exposure, you are better off resting, drinking liquids and limiting contact with those who may be in a risk category.

If you get sick, you normally see symptoms within 5 days of exposure but incubation period can be up to 14 days. In the US east coast we are in prime allergy season so sneezing and coughing is not necessarily a sign of this illness. A fever is the primary difference and should be taken seriously. If you don't have a fever you don't have this virus.

Buying or stealing toilet paper will in no way stop the threat of this virus. Choosing to socially distance (no hugging or hand shaking) is not a terrible idea if you are concerned about exposure. There is no evidence that the virus lives on surfaces for more than 3 days at this time, so staying at an Airbnb that has been sufficiently cleaned should not be an issue.  Flat and hard surfaces are more friendly to viruses than soft, cloth like surfaces. You can make a DIY cleaning spray by mixing 4 tablespoons of bleach with one part water. The CDC suggests using that or an ammonia or alcohol-based cleaning product.

Cancellations are really over the top for stays in April, May and beyond, and even the end of March. There is evidence that this type of virus will slow spreading in warmer months, so there is no need to take precautions to cancel trips months or even several weeks from now. In the US there is an advisory cautioning those to reconsider travel to places with over 100 cases. Currently this is California, Washington state and New York state.  The CDC keeps the most accurate map of the current confirmed case numbers. 

Hosts may need to be cautious with their cleaning supplies, water and other items left for guests. We usually leave everything out in our pantry but have had friends report that guests are stealing items en masse. Same with toilet paper. It might not be a bad idea to buy some small spray bottles and ration supplies for guests who are in panic mode.

Its very important that people support their local economies as much as they are comfortable so that this scare doesn't decimate it. There is not evidence that you can get it from cooked food, so frequenting restaurants, coffee shops, etc need not fall out of your habits completely especially if they offer a carry out or delivery option. Likewise, if you are in a state with less than 100 cases there is no current travel advisory for those who are not in a risk group. I can speak only about the US, as I am not as familiar with the situation in other countries.

Keeping calm, washing your hands frequently and using appropriate caution is the best course of action.

[Laura2592]

Also, just a quick note on different terms that I have heard a lot of people using incorrectly, even in the media.

A guest just asked if we were "quarantined." Uh no. Quarantine is a measure taken to isolate a diseased person or animal to halt the spread of illness. There has been no quarantine mandated by our state. We are all free to move around as much as we want.

"Self isolation" is what some people are doing either because they are at risk or worry about exposure and don't want to spread anything even if they have not been put at risk. This may involve staying home for several weeks and thus we are seeing runs on supplies in the US as people take this measure.

"Social distancing" is a more moderate response that means you aren't shaking hands, hugging, touching others/may be working from home or curtailing your activities which involve large groups.

[Helen350]

@Laura2592  FANTASTIC! Best thing I've read/watched!  - Always my feeling; No worse than the common cold.

- Last night I was at our tiny little local theatre, (behind my cottage), capacity a mere 208, - to see the world famous opera singer Lesley Garrett. There she stood, having travelled by train, she made a joke about herself & her pianist sitting on train, hand over mouth... And the audienced laughed, all nearly 208 of us! No one cares about Corona virus, in this remote corner of England! Business as usual! No panic buying, plenty of loo paper in the shops! - And I've been really busy these last 2 weeks, loads of guests! (Lots of non-reviewers, naughty people.)

[Laura2592]

@Helen350that sounds delightful! Thus far we have had two cancellations citing this scare-- one at the very end of March and one in May. I asked guests to wait and see how it shakes out as they have time to cancel and still get a refund, but there is some panic. Good decisions are never made when people are panicky. I hope we are all back to normal soon.

[Mark116]

@Laura2592  Thanks, that is helpful information. 

We hardly have any guests this year, but we do have some now and we had already taken the precaution of removing the extra toilet paper, paper towels, tissue and anti bacterial soap that we normally store in the unit, even though I felt a bit guilty for doing so, it seemed prudent.  We didn't take out the cleaning supplies, so I guess they could still steal those, LOL. 

[Michelle53]

@Laura2592 @Helen350    From your post above : "There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold."

This information has to be read very carefully. The whole point of the measures being taken is not about the people who will find it no more than an annoying cold. The measures being taken are about the people who are in the high-risk or very-high-risk category. 

People may be wandering about with few symptoms, feeling fine, and not taking the necessary precautions, and may be passing the virus on to people at high risk. 

Yes, the general population has to start developing immunity to the virus in its current form. Yes, it may mutate at any point. No, nobody knows, at this point,  if you can get it again.  We'll only know that next time it passes though. 

No, we don't know if the warmer weather will reduce the incidence of this virus. That is a guess (maybe an educated guess) based on experience with other coronaviruses. What warmer weather will do is reduce the incidence of those viruses that are known to be seasonal - i.e. common cold and common 'flu, thereby lessening the load on hospital services.

The entire point of all the measures being taken, right now, is to delay and reduce the extent of the peak of the outbreak, and allow time until a potential treatment can be found, and a vaccine devleoped (probably about a year from now).   People in the high-risk or very-high-risk category will likely be prioritized for a vaccine at that time. 

So, no, it's not panic time, for the majority of people, but one also should not take this lightly. 

[Laura2592]

@Michelle53  those populations who are at risk are at risk to other illnesses, viral diseases and health issues. While care and precautions should be taken its impossible to prevent or protect this population from every threat.  We need to be very careful on messaging the level of threat that exists for the vast majority of the public.  

[Michelle53]

@Laura2592   I am watching the presentations made by the majority of national and state leaders who are governed by the science, and I'm well familiar with the messaging. 

If you have been observing what has been happening in Italy, as one example, their medical professionals have so many cases to deal with that they are currently having to triage who will get care, and who will not, based on available resources.  

People are being asked to delay elective surgeries, as another example, to ensure the medical system is not overwhelmed. 

Since we are, currently, still in flu season, many hospitals are full with flu patients requiring ICU and supportive care. 

It has already been established that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is 10 times that of influenza. Dr Anthony Fauci of NIH presented this to Congress just this past week. 

So it's hard for me to be cavalier about the idea that someone at high risk, who gets the virus,  may not be able to get hospital treatment, if needed, because all the beds are full, or there are no ventilators available. 

Here's a link to the UK's Cobra (emergency management) Press Conference from Thursday, as one example. Presentation starts about 23 minutes in.  I found watching their medical experts very informative. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRadMzCKnCU

[Laura2592]

@Michelle53  no one is asking you to be cavalier.  But getting panicked and spending time obsessing over this will not help the situation one iota. I'm not going to go on about who 8 work with or my own personal credentials but suffice it to say the information we have is considered to be the "last word." More damaging than this virus is the potential to the economy of many powerful nations.  Service industry workers who work for tips are already being laid off in my small town due to a drastic decline in business. There will be much worse implications if we all give into desperation.  This is not the time to panic. 

[Kenneth12]

Thanks for this:  I'm going to note that (as a close friend of a former head of PR at Pemex) Pemex and other institutions are in danger of collapse in the next week.

A lot of panic and bad advise is leading to potential secondary phenomena that may result in more chaos and deaths than the virus itself.

[John1574]

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@Laura2592 

As someone in the sciences, you might consider that you, yourself, might be exhibiting a behavior known as confirmation bias. Many people are experiencing these biases that manifest themselves subconsciously in the human condition, most notably confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance.

Wiki has a great listing on these, they go through them and there are hundreds of different biases that we exhibit due to our faulty thinking.

If you think the dangers of the pandemic are overblown you are welcome to continue down that path, but I disagree with you wholeheartedly,  and I think your attempt to tell others that the danger is minimal is misguided.

I believe many institutions and the federal government itself have been trying to minimize the danger of this coronavirus.

The statement you wrote about vulnerable populations and how they will be getting sick anyway and are vulnerable to many other diseases, Man, that is a paragraph you should rethink and rewrite because it does not read well at all.

I am in that very vulnerable population and before the coronavirus came, which I have been following super closely, I was not afraid to go anywhere, but now I rarely leave the house.

My wife is taking draconian measures to protect me. No, we are not hoarding, buy maintaining hygiene and limiting potential exposure.

The numbers are not in my favor. if I get exposed I believe it will be a death sentence for me.

And I am the least fearful and least hysterical person you could ever meet.

I don't think we should be trying to minimize the danger of this pandemic out of our narrow self interest over AirBnB cancellations.

It's time to think bigger and start protecting ourselves and everyone we can.

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[Laura2592]

@John1574  there is no way to stop the spread of this virus without bringing the entire known world to a standstill.  It's not possible without causing greater problems than a virus.  

This has happened many times in human history and will happen again and again.  Thankfully we have better understanding,  technology and tools to fight this. But the answer is not to fear monger. 

My information was meant to be helpful.  I'm sure there are a lot of deep feelings on this subject.  Personally I take it seriously and take the recommended precautions.  But I also believe this is not a threat to everyone in the same way and that messaging should remain calm and logical.  

[Sandra856]

@Laura2592 Countries are acting to prevent that things will be as in Italy. They were taken with their trousers down because they didn't know what was coming. Why do you think it will be any differently in the rest of the world?

Countries are acting to prevent a complete meltdown. We cannot know what to expect but we can at least try to minimize. And it has nothing to do with panicking but with learning from what is happening in Italy/China. 

[John1574]

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@Laura2592 

But can we slow and limit the spread of the virus?

Are you advocating for large sporting events, concerts, etc. to be re-opened to the general public, travel bans lifted, people encouraged to take cruises? Fly in commercial airlines as often as possible?

Did your firm tell you what the infection rate is or an estimate? 

You try to minimize the number of people who are in the vulnerable population but health experts across the country are giving figures that that vulnerable population is high as 40% of a population of 350 million: you can do the math for that, right. 

And estimated 20 to 30% of our population is over 60 at this point in time: that could be 105 million people.

Why do you minimize the danger to this population?

You do know by the estimated infection rate that there are more than the reported 2000 cases in the US: probably well over 100,000 due to the abysmal rollout of any sort of testing procedure.

We only have the capability of testing about 50 people per state. And other countries have been testing 10 to 15,000 people per day.

This is nothing to be minimizing.

Nor is there any reason for panic, and I have not seen panic. I see people trying to socially isolate by buying a lot of things at one time at the Grocery stores which will soon be restocked. They are simply stocking up so they don't expose themselves often by going to crowded grocery stores often.

Facts and stats are our friends, but they must be interpreted reasonably: your post seems well-intentioned, but it also seems to try to minimize the danger of this pandemic. It implies that people shouldn't be that worried unless they're over 60. 

Remember that doctor in China who blew the whistle on the coronavirus: he was 40, and he died.

That doesn't mean that all you 40 your olds will die next week. Lol

To quote a cliché, we don't know what we don't know and we don't know a lot.

But in my opinion this should be taken very seriously. Not minimized in the least.

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[Laura2592]

@John1574  as someone who is at risk I understand that you are very concerned and should be. But the point of my sharing information was not to debate or upset.  It was merely to present the facts I have about how this situation affects the majority of the population. Best of luck to everyone, may common sense prevail and let's hope for a speedy recovery from this issue.