Brian Chesky's Latest Video on Reuters Jan 15

[Sharon1014]

Hmmm thoughts fellow hosts?  Seems guests are looking to go camping and stay with relatives instead.

Airbnb CEO says travel never going back to the way it was before pandemic | Reuters

Gotta say, Brian looks a wreck, perhaps the penny is dropping?

@Ute42  @Sarah977   @Ann72  @Anonymous  @Melodie-And-John0  @Cormac0  @Allen107   @Rebecca181  @Florence372  @Christine615 

[Cathie19]

@Sharon1014, I think travel will never be the same, not till we get a few years down the track, then only if the vaccines can have very high efficacy and tremendous reduction of complications... removing the mortality rate, or making it more a rare event.

We all still want to travel, but this virus won’t have travel insurance cover, so the risk internationally will be very high. Assuming you can actually leave the country, which we cannot.

As for local interstate travel, the opening and closing of borders and quarantining flights whilst they are mid air, is not encouraging travel either... To constantly lose the face value of air fares, facing 14 days of paying for supervised quarantine or having flights cancelled, needs to improve dramatically for confidence to return overall. It’s a long way off............

As for AIrbnb, I would normally have NO guests at this time of year. I’m amazed I have a 3 day and a 4 day booking this month. Both interstate (SA + VIC). So travel is changing and feels opportunistic, not planned. I must admit, I’ve no interest in using a hotel/motel currently and I think others might be thinking the same: feeling safer in a less travelled space, where the owner is accountable.

Grabbing a quick  trip to visit family (but staying here) or having a new experience. Last minute decisions taking advantage between border changes and outbreaks. 

So Airbnb will most definitely suffer, like other business models they cannot plan ahead.

So, contrary to the immediate challenges and investments in the last few years, they need to draw down and return back to basics. Protect the original interests of hosts and local experiences. This can still happen, but not so much where there is community transmission. We are very blessed.....

Oh and on a personal note, we’ve also just purchased a camper van, something we haven’t owned for at least fifteen years. Travel is changing for the interim, so subtly.

[Sharon1014]

@Cathie19   Agreed.  I heard on the radio here yesterday that the vaccine they want to roll out in Aus is only 62% effective and that the TGA won't approve it as yet.  Apparently the WHO standard for efficacy is 50%.  That seems pretty low to me.  And it doesn't mean that vaccinated people are immune or won't transmit the virus.   Vaccination typically just lessens the effects of whatever the disease is, but doesn't prevent people from contracting it or passing it on to others.

So yes, I also think this is going to be a very long haul and one that is likely to impact the travel industry and hosts in major cities in particular, quite hard.  As for ABNB's fortunes, have thought for some time now the company is going to be forced into a further substantial downsizing.  Q4 2020 earnings will be reported this month (Brian et al no doubt already has those figures and they are probably not pretty, hence softening up the market for bad news via Reuters piece).  Q1 2021 earnings will need to be reported in April, so it will be interesting to follow what happens with the company's share price between here and there.  

And for those company stockholders subject to the lock up period post launch, if that is the standard 6 months, they won't be able to sell until June.  So, interesting times ahead, especially given the debt load the company is carrying.

Re your recent purchase, I've also noticed lots of what look like brand new campervans and caravans parked in people's driveways of late, think you will have loads of company on the nomad trail ! 😀

[Cathie19]

I agree @Sharon1014  that a low efficacy % seems pretty low benchmark to aim for, when as a country, we have been doing so well. I understand the need to to roll out low efficacy vaccines in countries which have an overwhelmed or overloaded health system, due to high Covid19 numbers.

Pfizer can produce the vaccine so there should be no issue with availability and what’s another month??

[Sharon1014]

@Cathie19   Yes they need to do whatever they can, but low efficacy rates may bring a false sense of security when really there is none.  Not fussed in the least if the TGA takes another year to validate the use of a vaccine.  One of the probs with fast-tracking approval is that it simply can't go through the normal 5 - 7 year clinical trial cycle where only time can tell the true picture.  So the longer they wait, the better, imo.  But for those who want to get vaccinated, good luck to them. 

[Helen427]

@Sharon1014

Do you which part of the world this research was undertaken in?
How many people were interviewed?
What type of hosts/ guests?

One must be aware of the fact that National/ State of Emergency Regulations can be revoked just as they were during the time of unrest in the 1930's when there was originally a 10 year State of Emergency put into place.

Anything can and will happen from day to day that may see that changed so we can have our lives back to some normality and freedoms regained.

Hang in there, remain positive.

[Sharon1014]

@Helen427   It was US only research.  Don't think it really matters anyway.  Guests are gonna do whatever they're gonna do (or not do).  Our bookings are doing just fine btw, Aussie and Kiwiland are a bit blessed in that regard.  One more week of school hols (we're booked solid save for days blocked before and after each booking) then we revert to 2 night weekends only again, which we like, lots. 😀

Fast fwd to 30 mins in 

Nowthis: "Airbnb CEO Speaks on Travel Amid COVID-19" (pscp.tv)

[Helen427]

@Sharon1014,  Thanks

It does make a difference as some countries are much smaller islands than others , the temperatures in some countries may be more attractive for some to travel in & there's been so many job losses without air & cruise liner travel.

The New Zealand economy is puckeroo as in munted/ killed.

Auckland has been much quieter than usual over summer despite the America's Cup been on.

The proposed Universal Benefit won't be of any real benefit to the economy and people in positions of power are negligent for not picking up and acting on basic Red Flags.

People should have been given far better information well before locking down economies & borders.

I don't know if you knew or not but it was an ultrasound Doctor & a lady who worked in museums in USA that started a petition involving the NZ people and Gvt to close our borders without factoring into account the current Laws at the time

One has to question why the over the top reaction.

I'm disgusted Finance Ministers across the world failed to factor into account day to day operations which have for hundreds of years kept economies functioning.

I'm glad to read you are getting bookings.

We can only hope that there' s a huge shake up in places where people who are based are calling the shots & telling people how to live their lives so we can all get back on track living .

[Ann72]

@Sharon1014  Definitely from where I sit travel has changed dramatically.  Until last year I had at best a sprinkling of guests outside the May-September season; since the middle of last year it's been non-stop and still going.  People planning a three or four day getaway in rural Maine in the winter aren't bothered by the fact that many businesses shut down off-season because they're planning to shelter in place anyway.  They can still go hiking and take scenic drives, even more so this year as the winter has been fairly mild.

Brian (who looked the same to me, possibly less sniffly than the last time I saw him on video :)) is now speaking to shareholders and Wall Street, so he's going to emphasize the kind of travel that speaks to his data-set.  That doesn't mean he's 100% right.  Me, I'm going to Rome as soon as I can (obvi all the factors from vaccine to air travel to open borders will have to be in place).  In the meantime I'm going to a different museum (by appointment!) in NYC every weekend.  They're fairly empty but there are definitely some tourists in town.  People visit family here, too, I guess.  It doesn't feel like they're here on their long-planned sightseeing trip, but who knows?  I'm not getting close enough to ask them 😂

[Sharon1014]

@Ann72  "less sniffly"   but still sniffly, fidgety and looking like he may need another "intervention/support" visit from his Mom.  Hope he isn't going the way of Adam Neumann (of WeWork infamy).  

[Ann72]

@Sharon1014  And look at a WeWork outpost in New York last week...

[Christine615]

It’s been dead here and I’m honestly okay with that. The new strains of Covid are hugely problematic. A friend has been social distancing, sheltering in place and testing negative. Then needed a critical repair in her home. Workman got everything fixed. Two days later she and her roommate were sick and tested positive. Months of staying home and a temporary visit from strangers up ended everything.

So it makes me angry Airbnb doesn’t crack down on hosts doing back to back bookings with same day check-ins here in the states. Several push back on forums saying they’re willing to take the chance because they need the money. I want to scream that I lost one friend who just adopted her grandchildren and another has been in the hospital 2 months. 

Asymptomatic super spreaders  are giving death sentences to unsuspecting people. If contact tracing ever implicates an Airbnb stay business will crash.

So I’m glad travel is slowing. It will roar back when it’s safer.

[Sharon1014]

@Christine615   Agree with everything you've said, except the bit about roaring back when it's safer.  I think it will be more a trickle back over many years.  I've asked myself if I would get the vaccine when it comes out, and at present thinking nope, not enough efficacy, very short term gain (only good for 3 months) and too many unknowns about long term side effects. 

It does puzzle me that many in the US still think this virus is some kind of no-big-deal, money before all else.  Have a lot of sympathy for those hosts who are largely reliant on bnb income, but do think times are changing forever and people will have to adjust, whatever that takes.  

And yes absolutely, Airbnb should have mandatory block day before and after each booking (or 2 days) on every last host listing.  I'm sure that many bnb businesses are in fact contributing hugely to the spread.  We in Aussie are in a much better position than most countries, no community transmission, no-one in hospital with C-19 and very low case numbers (under 100, all from international arrivals and all of those in quarantine until twice tested negative), but even we as hosts block days before and after each booking and disinfect like crazy in between.  And although we are not required to wear masks atm, we always do whenever we go out.  Insurance. 

[Helen350]

I disagree that "asymptomatic superspreaders are giving death sentences to unsuspecting  people." It's just a theory that asymptomatic people can spread it, fear-mongering from governments; this fact is not proven.

I disagree with blaming ANYONE for spreading the virus....  Why do we blame others for our own irresponsible actions? Maybe the people to blame are the people who have CAUGHT it.  THEY are the people who left their homes, took risks, maybe touched their mouths with unwashed hands. (What happened to sanitizer? Seems to have gone out of fashion, since the cult of filthy, dirty, porous,useless masks started?)  And for all I know failed to give themselves a fighting chance of not catching the virus, by not eating right, not keeping healthy, not exercising, not getting out in the fresh air?

Contact tracing couldn't really implicate an Airbnb, because it could have been picked up elsewhere? And why should it be the "fault" of the Airbnb, rather than the behaviour of the guest?   Those who are not bothered by Covid, cos they don't believe the hype, or trust their own regimes of good diet, vitamin D, & exercise to keep themselves healthy will still book. And host. And those who are so scared by the media that they don't want to take ANY risks will not host, nor travel as a guest.

[Debra300]

@Helen350,

I can appreciate that you have a viewpoint that is contrary to most communication that's been disseminated regarding how the novelle coronavirus is spread.  Since I've not personally seen any credible information that contradicts the notion that asymptomatic people do spread the virus, would you please share what you've read or seen from reputable sources so that I can have an opportunity to evaluate their rhetoric?