Short term future of short term rentals

[Inna22]

Friends, what are your thoughts on our immediate future. Will we recover by summer?

I first thought I might do even better- as overseas vacations were being cancelled, I assumed people would still want to travel somewhere particular during spring break and Chicago is easy drive for so many. With airbnb being so much more private than a hotel, I thought I would actually see a surge in bookings. Now as cancellations are beginning to trickle in, schools start to close, I am not as optimistic. 

Do you think this will be over by May and people eager to travel again in the summer? Will prices go down tremendously? Please share your thoughts.

[Kath9]

@Inna22, I think we're going to see a real downturn overall. People just don't want to (and are being advised not to) travel right now. Added to the risk of the virus itself is the resulting economic recession, so people will also rein in their spending. For example, I had planned to travel to Thailand later in the year (I usually do an annual trip to South East Asia), but I have now put those plans on hold because I just don't want to get on a plane or spend any money as both of my income streams have taken a dive thanks to Covid-19. Unfortunately, I very much doubt this will be over by May - it's going to get much, much worse before it gets better, and I think we're looking at the rest of the year at least.

On the plus side, coronavirus is expected to result in a fall in global CO2 emissions: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-could-cause-fall-in-global-co2-emissions

You could try putting your prices down, but I honestly don't know how much difference that will make. I recommend thinking about long-term rentals until all this settles down.

[Ocean50]

On another plus side, those useless magazine and newspaper come in very handy if toilet paper panic continues.

[Sarah977]

I think we might see a shift in which locations get booked more. If events are cancelled and people are avoiding crowded areas, maybe remoter places will be more attractive to those who need a holiday, while big city locations take more of a hit. Hard to predict. We all need to have a back-up plan.

I feel really bad for small-time hosts who have no other source of income, like single moms with disappeared or dead-beat dads, who could lose their home because they couldn't pay the mortgage.

[Kath9]

@Sarah977, true, although I live in one of the remotest places in the world, and my bookings have declined dramatically. Also, I'm not sure how I feel about the city folk 'getting away' from the virus, only to bring it with them into my home!

[Sarah977]

@Kath9 True about city folks bringing it with them. If a guest brings bedbugs, at least they're not possibly fatal ;-)) 🙂 But where I live, it happens every tourist season anyway- people fly here from all over for a beach holiday, and bring norovirus and all sorts of other communicable illnesses with them. Then they post on facebook or trip advisor that their whole party of people got sick here and blame it on the town, the restaurants, the water, the ocean water, anything but acknowledging that they actually could have been infected with it before they left home or in the airport or on the plane.

[Lisa723]

@Inna22 @Sarah977 @Kath9 our places on the Olympic Peninsula are mostly booked through the summer and so far I have been surprised that even guests flying into Seattle do not want to cancel their upcoming trips. And our guests who are coming from Seattle understandably I guess see no reason to cancel. Of course that may change as the situation worsens, which it is obviously going to do.

[Inna22]

@Lisa723 I guess this aligns with @Sarah977 theory of people choosing more remote destinations 

[Dawn81]

It all seems very unpredictable. For one thing I'm sure none of us want to accept guests that have been exposed to the virus. I will definitely try to screen any future guest by inquiring whether they traveled out of the country. I would say the majority of my guests are here for business and personal family reasons so therefore are not your customary vacationers. Hopefully that will help me through this time  of uncertainty.  Here's the New York Times article about the topic.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/technology/airbnb-hosts-coronavirus.html

[Sarah977]

@Dawn81 "Travelled out of the country" is immaterial at this point. There are new cases showing up all over the place now. 

[Sandra126]

@Inna22 , I see no end in the near future. I have no back up plan myself. It's not looking good. Sorry to be pessimistic. I think if I can be healthy that is all I ask. I thought as internationals stopped coming local travel would increase but the entire country could well shut like  Italy. I think the coming months will prove challenging. I will do some work on the house,  if I can, in downtime. Assuming the hardware shops stay open!