I'm not sure that the Extenuating Circumstances policy is really even relevant anymore. I recently had two guests who cancelled completely outside the terms of the Extenuating Circumstances policies (both regular and COVID). Airbnb refunded one of them about two weeks after they cancelled (prior to me actually being paid) and took back the funds on the other one several weeks after I had been paid (strict cancellation policy on both).
After many back and forth messages with multiple Customer Service agents where I specifically laid out the facts supporting my position that the policy did not apply and I was entitled to be paid, I finally received the following message:
As cliche as it may sound I totally understand where you are coming from. Let me take to opportunity to inform you that we appreciate your efforts to drive business to our sites and to promote awareness of Airbnb, but unfortunately we need to point out that on section 9.5 of Airbnb's Terms of Service it clearly states that:
"9.5 In certain circumstances, Airbnb may decide, in its sole discretion, that it is necessary to cancel a pending or confirmed booking and initiate corresponding refunds and payouts. This may be for reasons set forth in Airbnb's Extenuating Circumstances Policy or (i) where Airbnb believes in good faith, while taking the legitimate interests of both parties into account, this is necessary to avoid significant harm to Airbnb, other Members, third parties or property, or (ii) for any of the reasons set out in these Terms."
So Airbnb's position is basically that they can make whatever decision they would like for any reason regardless of any extenuating circumstances policies, cancellation policies, or facts.