Coronavirus fear vs reality

Laura2592
Level 10
Frederick, MD

Coronavirus fear vs reality

I am hoping this is helpful for some. We have 19 cases in Maryland and none in our county or the neighboring county, yet people are panicking in a huge way and acting like the world is coming to an end. I work for a very large bio research organization which has a much more measured, scientific and less chaos-driven response. I am happy to share some guidance and facts that we have been given.

 

There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold. This is not a normally fatal illness. Exposure will allow your body to build up its natural immunity but communities do not want everyone going to the doctor at once as it may overwhelm resources. You cannot get the same virus twice. You can get a mutated version of the virus but not the exact same one.

 

Anti-viral drugs need to be given in the first 48 hours after exposure in order to be effective. This class of drugs can have difficult side effects so if you can't pinpoint the exact exposure, you are better off resting, drinking liquids and limiting contact with those who may be in a risk category.

 

If you get sick, you normally see symptoms within 5 days of exposure but incubation period can be up to 14 days. In the US east coast we are in prime allergy season so sneezing and coughing is not necessarily a sign of this illness. A fever is the primary difference and should be taken seriously. If you don't have a fever you don't have this virus.

 

Buying or stealing toilet paper will in no way stop the threat of this virus. Choosing to socially distance (no hugging or hand shaking) is not a terrible idea if you are concerned about exposure. There is no evidence that the virus lives on surfaces for more than 3 days at this time, so staying at an Airbnb that has been sufficiently cleaned should not be an issue.  Flat and hard surfaces are more friendly to viruses than soft, cloth like surfaces. You can make a DIY cleaning spray by mixing 4 tablespoons of bleach with one part water. The CDC suggests using that or an ammonia or alcohol-based cleaning product.

 

Cancellations are really over the top for stays in April, May and beyond, and even the end of March. There is evidence that this type of virus will slow spreading in warmer months, so there is no need to take precautions to cancel trips months or even several weeks from now. In the US there is an advisory cautioning those to reconsider travel to places with over 100 cases. Currently this is California, Washington state and New York state.  The CDC keeps the most accurate map of the current confirmed case numbers. 

 

Hosts may need to be cautious with their cleaning supplies, water and other items left for guests. We usually leave everything out in our pantry but have had friends report that guests are stealing items en masse. Same with toilet paper. It might not be a bad idea to buy some small spray bottles and ration supplies for guests who are in panic mode.

 

Its very important that people support their local economies as much as they are comfortable so that this scare doesn't decimate it. There is not evidence that you can get it from cooked food, so frequenting restaurants, coffee shops, etc need not fall out of your habits completely especially if they offer a carry out or delivery option. Likewise, if you are in a state with less than 100 cases there is no current travel advisory for those who are not in a risk group. I can speak only about the US, as I am not as familiar with the situation in other countries.

 

Keeping calm, washing your hands frequently and using appropriate caution is the best course of action.

108 Replies 108

@Marie6065   No I would not.  Health care workers are getting the virus, despite all the precautions they've been taking.  

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@Marie6065 

 

I think your reasoning is sound and logical, but I still would not rent to her.

 

I use probabilities to make many decisions and the probability of her bringing a virus into your environment is much, much greater than someone who is not working with infected people.

 

it's not about how good or careful people are, it's more about the probabilities; it's a numbers game.

 

We should all be reducing our potential exposure to an absolute minimum.

 

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Sheila22
Level 10
New York, NY

At this point it is less about panicking and more about taking advantage of the situation -- looting -- facilitated by Airbnb's mass cancellations.   Young healthy people are travelling.  They are Zooming work, allowing them to take dream vacations -- cheap flights to luxury beach resorts.  They have cancelled their modest road trip to your affordable accommodation because Airbnb lets them do it, and are turning around the same day booking more glamorous trips that they couldn't previously afford.

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@Sheila22 

 

I would not doubt that is happening one bit.

 

Young people are rolling the dice thinking that it's not gonna affect him, but it's kind of a selfish approach given that they can easily be spreading it to more vulnerable populations.

 

They probably have the great, Artist Formally Known as Prince pounding in their headphones singing, "let's party like it's 1999." But I'm sure there will be more current songs coming out very shortly with the same end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it motif.

 

There's not much we can do about the less inspiring traits of human beings.

 

There's a reason Europe is closing all the theaters, all the bars and restaurants.

 

They realized people won't respond to common sense requests to help in stopping the spread of the virus.

 

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@Sheila22 @John1574     We have our daily briefing from the Governor at 2.30pm, but I heard on the radio that both he, and the Mayor, are pretty disappointed with the response from the citizenry regarding recommended social distancing. 

 

Last night, apparently, bars and restaurants were full to capacity, with lines down the block, in some cases, with revellers celebrating St Pat's Day. 

 

The Mayor has already announced that establishments serving alcohol have to reduce maximum capacity by 50%, or maximum 100 people.   We'll see if there's more at 2.30pm. 

 

What is clear, though, is that, if people won't do the right thing voluntarily, officials are going to introduce measures to make the necessary happen.   City services are, then, going to end up being consumed with managing scofflaws. 

 

"I'm not about to put my life on hold because this is going around". 

 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/3/14/21179885/st-patricks-day-chicago-coronavirus

It doesn't matter what government officials say and do, because if they don't let the healthy/young/fearless socialize in one city/state, those individuals are going to hop on a cheap flight and book a place on the beach in a luxury resort area -- for pennies.  So, who's gonna get hurt?

 

But this is beside the point.  The issue is how unfairly Airbnb is treating Hosts.  Airbnb put 100% of the losses on the Hosts.  The local governments will shut down a city and put all the losses on local business and on those who work for them -- the bus boys, the manicurists, the shop clerk...and they will offer nothing to help them through it. Typical.

 

Airbnb is all over the news touting how generous they are during this Coronavirus because they are refunding all the Guests, patting themselves on the back --- but it is the HOSTS THAT ARE REFUNDING THE MONEY, not Airbnb!  They are making me sick with that disgusting PR campaign that I have to keep reading on every news outlet. 

Yup, restaurants and bars closing for two weeks to seated dining. Pickup and delivery will continue, if it can be established that workers and kitchens are safe. Drive-throughs will stay open. 

@Sheila22 @John1574 

@Sheila22 

Very true! Making the most of their 100% refunds.. 

 

Coronavacation - Why Some Millenials Only See Cheap Flights And Resorts In The Pandemic

https://theprint.in/opinion/pov/corona-vacation-why-some-millennials-only-see-cheap-flights-and-reso...

 

The Rise Of The Coronavacation As Millenials Cash In On Cheap Flights 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/coronavirus-coronavacation-deals-millennials/

Wende2
Level 10
Church Creek, MD

@Laura2592  I'm down the shore.  Had a cancellation that actually came saying...due to covid19 in my area..talk about.alarm bells going off.!!  Found this in a search as of today...15 March...thought you'd be interested, as well as anyone living or coming to MD.  By the way, I'm in Dorchester Co., not on the list Thank you.

 

https://www.delmarvanow.com/story/news/local/maryland/2020/03/06/coronavirus-in-maryland-covid-19-li...

John1574
Level 10
Providence, RI

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@Michelle53 

 

I think this is the day where truth began breaking out all over.

 

When Dr. Fauci said this morning on National television that there could be 1 million deaths in the US, I think it shocked a lot of people awake.

 

I saw another expert explain how  exponential growth works: last Friday we had a bit over 100 infections and today we have 3155 and counting. Why anyone would attempt to minimize the danger of what's going on is beyond me.

 

And I heard several public health experts and an epidemiologist state the infections are probably around 100,000 today in the US.


When you look at the news from Europe, it's even worse over there, and we have no national leadership on this: it's atrocious.

 

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@John1574  Truth will start breaking out in full force once there is actually adequate testing going on.   Right now, the reality is we have no idea whatsoever how many cases are actually out there. 

 

I've been watching the news most of the day. Dr Fauci has been the best source of truth thus far. The admiral from health services, who I haven't seen before, seemed really credible. Breath of fresh air, really.   

 

It somewhat reminds me of Hurricane Katrina. The floundering until they sent in General Honore to start taking charge. 

 

Also, a fact which seems to be emerging today is that, even if one gets a "mild" case of the virus, it can still cause permanent lung damage, 

Emilia42
Level 10
Orono, ME

How many people here don't have health care?

@Emilia42  I have private health insurance but received a notice from my insurance agent that the insurance company has absolved itself of paying out for any coronavirus cases.

@Emilia42 @Sarah977   I have insurance,  with a deductible of $7,400. In network.  Maximum out of pocket is $8,150.   That's a lot of bathroom-cleaning, right there. I haven't had anything specific from my provider yet, and there's nothing on the website.  Uh....hospital "coverage" : $300 per visit plus 50% of eligible charges.

 

 

Cathie19
Level 10
Darwin, Australia

Without testing available to all, the real contagion figures will remain unknown.

 

Remember everyone, what actions happen today will not be felt for easily, 14 days. If swift and safe actions aren’t taken now, then exponentially , the situation just grows, steeply! 

 

The curve  stats for the burden in the health care systems, as used by WHO and best practise, MUST be flattened to reduce fatalities.

This advice is also for the ver rich who have higher insurance, as well as jo blog and those with no insurance.! 

 

Sadly, ignorance is not bliss. It’s irresponsible.

 

SIMPLY: if you fall sick for any other reason, you will be affected and at higher risk, because the health system may not have the equipment, the staff or a bed for you it your loved one.