Coronavirus fear vs reality

[Laura2592]

I am hoping this is helpful for some. We have 19 cases in Maryland and none in our county or the neighboring county, yet people are panicking in a huge way and acting like the world is coming to an end. I work for a very large bio research organization which has a much more measured, scientific and less chaos-driven response. I am happy to share some guidance and facts that we have been given.

There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold. This is not a normally fatal illness. Exposure will allow your body to build up its natural immunity but communities do not want everyone going to the doctor at once as it may overwhelm resources. You cannot get the same virus twice. You can get a mutated version of the virus but not the exact same one.

Anti-viral drugs need to be given in the first 48 hours after exposure in order to be effective. This class of drugs can have difficult side effects so if you can't pinpoint the exact exposure, you are better off resting, drinking liquids and limiting contact with those who may be in a risk category.

If you get sick, you normally see symptoms within 5 days of exposure but incubation period can be up to 14 days. In the US east coast we are in prime allergy season so sneezing and coughing is not necessarily a sign of this illness. A fever is the primary difference and should be taken seriously. If you don't have a fever you don't have this virus.

Buying or stealing toilet paper will in no way stop the threat of this virus. Choosing to socially distance (no hugging or hand shaking) is not a terrible idea if you are concerned about exposure. There is no evidence that the virus lives on surfaces for more than 3 days at this time, so staying at an Airbnb that has been sufficiently cleaned should not be an issue.  Flat and hard surfaces are more friendly to viruses than soft, cloth like surfaces. You can make a DIY cleaning spray by mixing 4 tablespoons of bleach with one part water. The CDC suggests using that or an ammonia or alcohol-based cleaning product.

Cancellations are really over the top for stays in April, May and beyond, and even the end of March. There is evidence that this type of virus will slow spreading in warmer months, so there is no need to take precautions to cancel trips months or even several weeks from now. In the US there is an advisory cautioning those to reconsider travel to places with over 100 cases. Currently this is California, Washington state and New York state.  The CDC keeps the most accurate map of the current confirmed case numbers. 

Hosts may need to be cautious with their cleaning supplies, water and other items left for guests. We usually leave everything out in our pantry but have had friends report that guests are stealing items en masse. Same with toilet paper. It might not be a bad idea to buy some small spray bottles and ration supplies for guests who are in panic mode.

Its very important that people support their local economies as much as they are comfortable so that this scare doesn't decimate it. There is not evidence that you can get it from cooked food, so frequenting restaurants, coffee shops, etc need not fall out of your habits completely especially if they offer a carry out or delivery option. Likewise, if you are in a state with less than 100 cases there is no current travel advisory for those who are not in a risk group. I can speak only about the US, as I am not as familiar with the situation in other countries.

Keeping calm, washing your hands frequently and using appropriate caution is the best course of action.

[Ann72]

@Laura2592  As a New Yorker, where crowds are a daily fact of life, I don't think our actions have anything to do with panic.  All the evidence shows that social distancing, hand washing, and self isolation helps reduce the spread of the disease.  Reducing the spread of the disease is our sole aim.  My own daughters won't come across the river from Brooklyn to visit me, because it would mean riding the subway and possibly bringing the disease to me.  As I'm over 60 and a smoker, I entirely understand and am touched by their concern.  Privately I think they worry too much - at the beginning of the outbreak, I went to Broadway theatres - including one where an usher was later found to have the disease - four times in 10 days, and attended a crowded memorial service and a crowded party as well, and I'm fine.  But we all need to do our part for our fellow humans.

[Laura2592]

@Ann72 I understand what we are being advised to do, and why, but I also am  being barraged with questions like "can I still go outside?" and "how can you guarantee there is no transmission of the virus from this item I ordered in the mail from China?" The point of my information was not to discuss the best way to contain this-- in my opinion, there really is no way to totally contain this that is practical or truly effective-- but I do understand why certain decisions are being made and advice given.

We are all healthy here in my household and among my acquaintances and friends. Or at least asymptomatic as testing is not available in our community for anyone who wants it. I know some people who are in higher risk categories and their daily routines have been severely hampered. We are just now seeing a case in our community-- an elderly woman,  just back from Italy, who is hospitalized. If any of us get sick, we certainly will follow the guidance so that we minimize the impact to others. 

But I also see the stock market tanking. Friends who have no means to support their families when their businesses are temporarily shuttered or shifts cut. Panic buying over supplies and shortages. Hosts bleeding reservations. Hotels with 150 employees and  only 3 guests who are still staying. I stand by a cautious, reasonable approach to dealing with this, particularly for those who are not in a high-risk group.  Only time will tell if this threat is truly as dire as predicted. 

[Ann72]

@Laura2592  Okay.  I guess maybe you misjudged your audience - most of the hosts who hang out here are smarter than that.

I actually don't think the supply shortage is due to panic.  Think about it for a minute.  What manufacturer produces and what retailer stocks for the day when literally everyone in the community wants to buy the same thing?  To do that would be folly.

As for the stock market - gah.  I took half my 2019 gains out at the beginning of January and put them to another use.  I didn't know what would drive the market down, but after such a long and relentless bull market, I knew something would.

[John1574]

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@Ann72 

I would not have the same "what, me worry?" attitude that you have if I were in your situation. And I don't think your governor, Andrew Cuomo, has a "what, me worry?"attitude either.

I don't know how well-informed you are or how many different sources you are getting your news from, but I would rethink my position if I were you.

The fact that younger people are not taking this outbreak seriously is a growing concern. The following quote is from the Boston Globe: 

Epidemiologists have said that young people spread Covid-19 faster and farther because they’re more socially active than older adults. They’re also more likely to carry the disease undetected if their symptoms are mild or nonexistent, especially in countries like the US, where diagnostic testing is severely limited. Data from South Korea, where testing for the virus is widespread, show adults ages 20 to 29 were carriers of nearly 30 percent of confirmed cases.

I just read another report that in Iran, 15% of all the deaths are people under 40.

A tremendous dis-service was done by anyone who spread the word that for young people who are infected by coronavirus, it will be not much worse than the flu or a bad cold. 

There is no evidence anywhere that this is true now or ever was true.

All this disinformation did was give people an excuse to go out to the bars and restaurants ignoring their role in spreading the coronavirus.

Our president has continually tried to minimize this corona outbreak, even once calling it a hoax at one of his rallies. President Trump has continually downplayed the seriousness of the situation, and we are now all going to be paying the price for it.

we now have ER doctors in critical condition and if many of our our healthcare workers are unable to provide care can you imagine what this outbreak will turn into?

I urge everyone with Pollyannish opinions to keep those opinions to yourself.

if we get out of this coronavirus outbreak with minimal casualties it will be because we did our due diligence and helped slow the spread of the virus.

That will never get done if people continually try to minimize the seriousness of this outbreak.

This is from Italy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_cImRzKXOs&feature=youtu.be

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[Laura2592]

@John1574 I know that you are trying to get people to take this as seriously as you do but nothing in Ann72 said nothing in her post which indicated to me that she was not concerned nor following protocols.  Have you cancelled all of your guests because of your own fragile health situation? 

Don't know where you are getting your statistics on age-related deaths but again, CDC, WHO and NIH have the only information that I trust. 

From the CDC website:

Severity

The complete clinical picture with regard to COVID-19 is not fully known. Reported illnesses have ranged from very mild (including some with no reported symptoms) to severe, including illness resulting in death. While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a report out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases. Older people and people of all ages with severe chronic medical conditions — like heart disease, lung disease and diabetes, for example — seem to be at a higher risk of developing serious illness.

Risk Assessment

Risk depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccine or treatment medications, nonpharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy. These are community interventions that can reduce the impact of disease.

The risk from COVID-19 to Americans can be broken down into risk of exposure versus risk of serious illness and death.

Risk of exposure:

• The immediate risk of being exposed to this virus is still low for most Americans, but as the outbreak expands, that risk will increase. Cases of COVID-19 and instances of community spread are being reported in a growing number of states.
• People in places where ongoing community spread of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been reported are at elevated risk of exposure, with the level of risk dependent on the location.
• Healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 are at elevated risk of exposure.
• Close contacts of persons with COVID-19 also are at elevated risk of exposure.
• Travelers returning from affected international locations where community spread is occurring also are at elevated risk of exposure, with level of risk dependent on where they traveled.

Risk of Severe Illness:

Early information out of China, where COVID-19 first started, shows that some people are at higher risk of getting very sick from this illness. This includes:

• Older Adults with risk increasing by age
• People who have serious chronic medical conditions such as:
• Heart disease
• • Diabetes
  • Lung disease

[Ann72]

@John1574  Oh gosh, I didn't mean to convey that!  I've been home for the past 10 days - those outings were all in the last week of February and the first week of March.  I shut my office and my employees and I are working remotely.  All the young people I know are taking this very seriously.  Clearly the fact that my 20-something daughters won't visit me shows how responsible they're being.

Please forgive me for not reading all of your very long post - life's too short for harangues!

[Laura2592]

@Ann72  didn't sound like that to me either. I wish John the best but his own listing seems to be up and available, so I do have concerns about his own health situation with travelers staying there and him  in a high  risk group

[Ann72]

Thanks, @Laura2592 !

[Laura2592]

@Ann72  You are more than welcome.

 I only started this thread to repeat information that may reduce the rumors and speculation about this. Hosts are very upset about the cancellation policies and I can't say that  I blame them, so I wanted to share anything I knew that could help allay fears, maybe give some tips on cleaning to reassure guests, etc. But some posters have used it to promote agendas that baffle me, given the lengthy screeds and open listings. If you are really that much at risk, you should not be in contact with ANYONE nor should you ask strangers to stay in your space.

Agree with me or not, I hope that I was able to provide some helpful info to a few people out there 🙂 I wish everyone well and have asked the mods to close this discussion as I think its gone off the rails.

[John1574]

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OMG!

You actually asked the mods to close this thread because there is someone that doesn't agree with what you're saying?

You're spreading misinformation and false accusations and you seem like you don't know what you're talking about.

I remain incredulous.

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[Suzanne302]

@John1574  I don't always agree with you in this forum, but you are spot on with this one. 

[John1574]

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@Ann72 @Laura2592 

"Don't know where you are getting your statistics on age-related deaths but again, CDC, WHO and NIH have the only information that I trust. -"

If that is true then you are extremely naïve.

I know many people who work in biotech and they all have the same attitude as you do, and I find it disgusting. You're no more an expert then I am and you don't have any better critical thinking skills than I.

And your biotech company fed you a load of crap that you are now trying to push off on others. Get over yourself: you're spreading disinformation in the false guise of an intelligent assessment. 

You seem more like a blind follower than a critical thinker.

I don't want people to take it as seriously as I do: I want people to take it as seriously as the public health experts and the epidemiologists that are giving us the updates and information we need to know.

I aggregate information from probably 50 or more different sources. I trust my assessment. I do not trust your assessment,  not one bit.

As for the CDC I don't put any credence in most of what they say at all.

Didn't the CDC bungle the testing so they were 45 days behind the rest of the world?

I disagree with Anne because she said in her post that she thinks her children are taking it too seriously when they're just trying to protect her. Must be getting her reports from Fox News or something.

I am in the danger group because of preconditions, but in no way am I in fragile health. Why are you jumping to such a conclusion? I guess I can almost understand, but it is a very false assumption. I'm confident I will survive but only because I'm doing my due diligence. If I do fall victim it will be because of the actions of people who minimize this outbreak so that our medical system will eventually be overwhelmed and not able to handle the cases. 

I have not canceled any reservations but I think anybody who wants to cancel should cancel and shut their AirBnB down until they feel comfortable again.

i'm comfortable running our airB&Bs during the outbreak because I have a very tight management style and AirBnB has given us the tools to cancel anything at anytime for any reason.

And once again I want to point out to you that this is a discussion and debate: whether you wanted it to be a discussion or debate I don't know. It sounds like you did not want it to be a debate, you just wanted to have your word out there and people take it at face value.

Like it or not you are in a discussion and a debate on a community forum, and you and I are on opposite ends of that

discussion.

I don't know what you want to achieve by continually minimizing the dangerousness of this coronavirus outbreak.

I guess you want to wait and see how serious it is, eh.

Or are you much more concerned about the economic impact of the coronavirus more so than the health of the people.  We will be going into a recession: the train has left the station.

There will be no economic recovery until this coronavirus is corralled and it's spread has been controlled.

if you get sick with the coronavirus, regardless of your age, you will be very sick, if you're lucky it will be like a cold or flu but if you're unlucky you will be hospitalized and in dire condition. This notion is an out right lie, propaganda. This lie has younger people running around thinking that they won't pay any consequences for spreading and intermingling with the coronavirus.

Well, I hope you and yours remain safe and untouched by the virus itself, though the widening effects of this pandemic are far from being determined. Good luck to you and yours.

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[Ann72]

@John1574  Goodness, you're in a bit of a lather.  @Laura2592 offered a service with her post.  No one here is not taking this thing seriously.  If you want to start a fight with someone, that's what Facebook is for.

[John1574]

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@Ann72 

OMG!

I've just been attacked and scolded in one post.

Sounds like you are the one who wants to start a fight, Anne.

Why waste your time posting here on this thread if you have nothing to contribute? 

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[Ann72]

@John1574  Ha!  Good point.  Thanks, and next time spell my name right, Johne.