Coronavirus fear vs reality

[Laura2592]

I am hoping this is helpful for some. We have 19 cases in Maryland and none in our county or the neighboring county, yet people are panicking in a huge way and acting like the world is coming to an end. I work for a very large bio research organization which has a much more measured, scientific and less chaos-driven response. I am happy to share some guidance and facts that we have been given.

There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold. This is not a normally fatal illness. Exposure will allow your body to build up its natural immunity but communities do not want everyone going to the doctor at once as it may overwhelm resources. You cannot get the same virus twice. You can get a mutated version of the virus but not the exact same one.

Anti-viral drugs need to be given in the first 48 hours after exposure in order to be effective. This class of drugs can have difficult side effects so if you can't pinpoint the exact exposure, you are better off resting, drinking liquids and limiting contact with those who may be in a risk category.

If you get sick, you normally see symptoms within 5 days of exposure but incubation period can be up to 14 days. In the US east coast we are in prime allergy season so sneezing and coughing is not necessarily a sign of this illness. A fever is the primary difference and should be taken seriously. If you don't have a fever you don't have this virus.

Buying or stealing toilet paper will in no way stop the threat of this virus. Choosing to socially distance (no hugging or hand shaking) is not a terrible idea if you are concerned about exposure. There is no evidence that the virus lives on surfaces for more than 3 days at this time, so staying at an Airbnb that has been sufficiently cleaned should not be an issue.  Flat and hard surfaces are more friendly to viruses than soft, cloth like surfaces. You can make a DIY cleaning spray by mixing 4 tablespoons of bleach with one part water. The CDC suggests using that or an ammonia or alcohol-based cleaning product.

Cancellations are really over the top for stays in April, May and beyond, and even the end of March. There is evidence that this type of virus will slow spreading in warmer months, so there is no need to take precautions to cancel trips months or even several weeks from now. In the US there is an advisory cautioning those to reconsider travel to places with over 100 cases. Currently this is California, Washington state and New York state.  The CDC keeps the most accurate map of the current confirmed case numbers. 

Hosts may need to be cautious with their cleaning supplies, water and other items left for guests. We usually leave everything out in our pantry but have had friends report that guests are stealing items en masse. Same with toilet paper. It might not be a bad idea to buy some small spray bottles and ration supplies for guests who are in panic mode.

Its very important that people support their local economies as much as they are comfortable so that this scare doesn't decimate it. There is not evidence that you can get it from cooked food, so frequenting restaurants, coffee shops, etc need not fall out of your habits completely especially if they offer a carry out or delivery option. Likewise, if you are in a state with less than 100 cases there is no current travel advisory for those who are not in a risk group. I can speak only about the US, as I am not as familiar with the situation in other countries.

Keeping calm, washing your hands frequently and using appropriate caution is the best course of action.

[Laura2592]

  my mom would always shake her head and say  "You are in a lather over this, bless your heart!"  when someone was overwrought.  She passed away years ago (not from coronavirus!) so thanks for reminding me of her I don't hear that expression very often and had almost forgotten it was one of her "things."  Stay safe! 

I have reported some content that includes name calling. There is just no reason for that. I hope the mods do close this thread as cool heads seem not to prevail on this topic. Especially as page one lists our friend John saying the following:

I am in that very vulnerable population and before the coronavirus came, which I have been following super closely, I was not afraid to go anywhere, but now I rarely leave the house.

My wife is taking draconian measures to protect me. No, we are not hoarding, buy maintaining hygiene and limiting potential exposure.

But now I "got the idea" that he is in fragile health and he is okay to do his listings....

Again, time to shut this down so that we can get back to a civil discussion. We all have better things to do!

🙂

@Ann72

[Michelle53]

Directly from the CDC website :-

"COVID-19 Now a Pandemic

A pandemic is a global outbreak of disease. Pandemics happen when a new virus emerges to infect people and can spread between people sustainably. Because there is little to no pre-existing immunity against the new virus, it spreads worldwide.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is infecting people and spreading easily from person-to-person. Cases have been detected in most countries worldwide and community spread is being detected in a growing number of countries. On March 11, the COVID-19 outbreak was characterized as a pandemic by the WHOexternal icon.

This is the first pandemic known to be caused by the emergence of a new coronavirus. In the past century, there have been four pandemics caused by the emergence of novel influenza viruses. As a result, most research and guidance around pandemics is specific to influenza, but the same premises can be applied to the current COVID-19 pandemic. Pandemics of respiratory disease follow a certain progression outlined in a “Pandemic Intervals Framework.” Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in different phases of the pandemic at any point in time and different parts of the same country can also be in different phases of a pandemic.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Situation in U.S.

Different parts of the country are seeing different levels of COVID-19 activity. The United States nationally is currently in the initiation phases, but states where community spread is occurring are in the acceleration phase. The duration and severity of each phase can vary depending on the characteristics of the virus and the public health response.

• CDC and state and local public health laboratories are testing for the virus that causes COVID-19. View CDC’s Public Health Laboratory Testing map.
• More and more states are reporting cases of COVID-19 to CDC.
• U.S. COVID-19 cases include:
  • Imported cases in travelers
  • Cases among close contacts of a known case
  • Community-acquired cases where the source of the infection is unknown.
• Three U.S. states are experiencing sustained community spread.
• View latest case counts, deaths, and a map of states with reported cases."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

REPORTED CASES (I put this in caps due to the fact that totally inadequate testing has been done, thus far). 

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*

• Total cases: 3,487
• Total deaths: 68

Someone who has done extensive data projections on how many ACTUAL cases exist, in the absence of adequate testing, can be found at this link, which has been issued by several corporations in our area, in order to help determine when they should be asking employees to switch to working remote. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

No doubt, you may look at the link and infer that it is overhyped, before carefully examining the data.  However, it is based on real data from the combined experience of countries who have seen, or are seeing, exponential growth. 

Countries who have been more successful in managing this are South Korea and Taiwan. Due to aggressive measures applied early, and a large amount of testing. 

Italy tried the "Measured Approach". With the result that they do not have enough hospital beds to deal with all the cases, and their death rate is far higher than needed to be, due to the need to triage which patients would get care and who would not. 

Time's up for the "Measured Approach".

Which is why state governments are currently in process of shutting bars and restaurants, having stores close early,  and implementing curfews. 

Just because you are in a location which may, currently. have a very small number of TESTED cases does not mean that you won't be seeing an exponential growth in cases further down the line. 

Current guidelines from the press conference which just occurred state the foillowing :-

CDC recommends no gatherings greater than 10 people. 

A direct appeal was made to Millennials to assist by, even though they may experience mild symptoms,  staying home. Families with one person sick are asked to self isolate, and stay at home. 

There is no national lockdown yet, but this may occur if current measures do not control the spread of the virus. 

[John1574]

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@Michelle53 

Thank you for your post.

Can I safely assume that you do not support minimizing the danger of the coronavirus outbreak, the worldwide pandemic?

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[Michelle53]

@John1574   You can safely assume that.   

In all honesty, I've been evolving on this, too, as more and more data has become available.

I was less concerned when we only had one or two cases in our area. Now that we have over 100 reported and tested cases, and the statistical modelling says that we likely have many times that in actuality,  possibly 1000s , I'm fully behind our Governor's decision to have people stay at home, close bars and restaurants, close schools, reduce store hours, and have workers work remote .

My social and business friends and colleagues are working remote and staying home.  We are, by the way, supporting restaurants and other small businesses, by having orders picked up or delivered.  

[John1574]

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@Ann72  @Laura2592 

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My mom, Anne, always said, "don't get yourself in a tither." So I always work myself into a tither rather than a lather, but right now I'm neither but rather perfectly calm whereas I see others are all  "a twitter."  

Whatever state you're in let's all take this coronavirus seriously and not minimize it in anyway whatsoever.

Do your due diligence.

Stop minimizing the danger of coronavirus.

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[Laura2592]

@John1574  let's review some of your posts.   You say on page one:

"I am in that very vulnerable population and before the coronavirus came, which I have been following super closely, I was not afraid to go anywhere, but now I rarely leave the house.

My wife is taking draconian measures to protect me. No, we are not hoarding, buy maintaining hygiene and limiting potential exposure."

But then above that I got some kind of "idea" about you being in poor health and that you can run your Airbnb just fine? Again, if you are taking this super seriously wouldn't you NOT want any guests? 

Pardon me but that does not make any sense. I think its time to end this discussion as its really unbecoming to read such virulent (pun intended) screeds when I am only trying to be helpful. I wish you the best and whatever  your health situation may or may not be, hope that you can find some peace. 

[Mark116]

@Laura2592  I thought your information was very helpful.  This thread has taken an odd turn, and I'm sorry for that as well.  

[Laura2592]

@Mark116  thank you! And hasn't it though? 

[John1574]

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@Laura2592 

OMG.

You are beyond transparent. You simply can't stand that I disagree with you.

Now you are trying to attack my business practices, using my quotes against me, falsely assuming that I'm in poor health? What you just did in your previous post is absolutely despicable, you should be ashamed of yourself.

I am in a risk group but I am not putting myself at risk nor am I putting anyone else at risk. 

I don't understand why you keep attacking me: why you don't just let it go and accept that I disagree with you. FULL STOP!

This is a public forum a place to debate and discuss. 

What is it you don't understand about this concept?

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[Laura2592]

@John1574  You take corona virus very very seriously. That is clear. You have stated you are at risk. But yet, you are okay with guests, who you have no way of screening, testing, or assuring that they are not infected, staying in your space. You are concerned that asymptomatic people can infect others, and yes, it does look like that might be possible or even probable. Why run that risk if the threat is truly that concerning to you? Its a valid question. 

I am not concerned about guests staying in my space whatsoever. So maybe we agree on something? Maybe we can end this in a space of common ground. I am sure no one wants to follow this discussion further, and we are both part of the same host community, both trying to do what we think is right.

[John1574]

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@Laura2592 

OK, I now see where your false assumptions are coming from.

I live in an old Victorian house on a mini-estate In the middle of the city that is completely enclosed with tall fencing and electronic gates.

My Airbnb units are not on my property,  and I generally have no contact with my guests unless they suggest meeting. Right now, I would probably not honor such requests. 

My risk is that someone will breathe on me or I will touch a door knob that someone just touched, and then I will get the coronavirus, but I'm not leaving my property very much except to go outside and exercise or to take the dog for a walk in a large park so I keep my distance from people. 

i'm not expecting to get a lot of business during this outbreak so I'm not even considering taking my listing down. but I'm keeping an open mind because this thing is just exploding right now and we don't know where it's going to go. I expected to get much much worse.

But it's nothing we can't handle it we can get millennials to start adhering to the social distancing mandates the government and CDC and health authorities have suggested.

I have the press conference on right now that features President Trump and Vice President Pence and all leading health authorities and they are not minimizing the threat of the coronavirus pandemic one iota.

My main gripe is that people are suggesting to young people that they are not as susceptible to this disease and we do not know if that's true at all.

It is far too early to make such assumptions.

I think for hosts it's an individual decision, but it should be business as usual if you're comfortable with the risk involved and you know how to take the necessary precautions. 

Of course if I was in Seattle, or new Rochelle, New York, or Manhattan, or Boston, I would shut my AirBnB down until I know more.

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[Ann72]

@John1574  I'm looking around for the person who isn't taking this seriously and can't find him or her. 

@Laura2592's concern underlay her entire post.  If she wasn't taking the crisis seriously, she wouldn't have bothered to create a thoughtful post about it.

And while we are conducting our daily lives with the utmost care and concern, is it also a requirement that we be in a high state of anger and anxiety?

Maybe only a very long post with links would convince you that I am taking this seriously.  Okay, here goes:

Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

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Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahhttps://a858-nycnotify.nyc.gov/notifynycblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

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Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahhttps://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-coronavirus-growing-in-new-york-chart-shows...blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

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Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahhttps://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/coronavirus.pageblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

Happy now?

[John1574]

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@Ann72 

You are a hoot, Ann!

And yes, "you make me so very happy, I'm so glad you came into my life."

I get it, you don't like me, you don't like that I disagree with Laura and you want to start a fight with me. 

You go girl!  Mock me all you want. Try to embarrass me, humiliate me and whatever other dispersions you can cast on my character. 

As you so eloquently said: blah blah blah.

I think this thread should go on for the next month or so so that we can see how serious this pandemic really is. Right now it's too early to tell.

Was minimizing the threat of the pandemic the correct approach? Just wait around and we shall see.

But some people want to shut the thread down because someone is disagreeing with someone else.

And they can't stand it.

They'd rather pick a fight on a forum.

Truly pathetic.

Have you seen the guidelines that just came out for the next 10 days: no groups larger than 10 people, work from home don't go out, etc?

if you don't want to engage with me, stop tagging me and won't respond to you if you don't tag me, and I will not tag you.

We can all just respond to the thread's discussions without mentioning anyone by name.

Why someone like Ann is gleefully attacking me is beyond my comprehension.

She must be a real feisty old gal.  Lol

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[Ann72]

@John1574  Aha!  You understood what I was saying! 

You see, I thought that, because you kept insisting that people like Laura and me weren't taking the crisis seriously, it was possible you had poor reading comprehension.  

So I devised this little test.  And you passed!  You comprehended it perfectly!

Well done, you.

[John1574]

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@Ann72  I am really glad that you finally had that long-awaited A Ha moment. It was a real real real long time coming wasn't it.

And you're right to cast dispersions on my reading comprehension skills. After all, I am an idiot.

I suggested you not tag me anymore, but if you want to tag me to engage in this kind of back-and-forth, I'm more than willing to entertain you. Just know that I think you are a despicable person.

But I'm always willing to engage. Even with fools.

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