Coronavirus fear vs reality

[Laura2592]

I am hoping this is helpful for some. We have 19 cases in Maryland and none in our county or the neighboring county, yet people are panicking in a huge way and acting like the world is coming to an end. I work for a very large bio research organization which has a much more measured, scientific and less chaos-driven response. I am happy to share some guidance and facts that we have been given.

There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold. This is not a normally fatal illness. Exposure will allow your body to build up its natural immunity but communities do not want everyone going to the doctor at once as it may overwhelm resources. You cannot get the same virus twice. You can get a mutated version of the virus but not the exact same one.

Anti-viral drugs need to be given in the first 48 hours after exposure in order to be effective. This class of drugs can have difficult side effects so if you can't pinpoint the exact exposure, you are better off resting, drinking liquids and limiting contact with those who may be in a risk category.

If you get sick, you normally see symptoms within 5 days of exposure but incubation period can be up to 14 days. In the US east coast we are in prime allergy season so sneezing and coughing is not necessarily a sign of this illness. A fever is the primary difference and should be taken seriously. If you don't have a fever you don't have this virus.

Buying or stealing toilet paper will in no way stop the threat of this virus. Choosing to socially distance (no hugging or hand shaking) is not a terrible idea if you are concerned about exposure. There is no evidence that the virus lives on surfaces for more than 3 days at this time, so staying at an Airbnb that has been sufficiently cleaned should not be an issue.  Flat and hard surfaces are more friendly to viruses than soft, cloth like surfaces. You can make a DIY cleaning spray by mixing 4 tablespoons of bleach with one part water. The CDC suggests using that or an ammonia or alcohol-based cleaning product.

Cancellations are really over the top for stays in April, May and beyond, and even the end of March. There is evidence that this type of virus will slow spreading in warmer months, so there is no need to take precautions to cancel trips months or even several weeks from now. In the US there is an advisory cautioning those to reconsider travel to places with over 100 cases. Currently this is California, Washington state and New York state.  The CDC keeps the most accurate map of the current confirmed case numbers. 

Hosts may need to be cautious with their cleaning supplies, water and other items left for guests. We usually leave everything out in our pantry but have had friends report that guests are stealing items en masse. Same with toilet paper. It might not be a bad idea to buy some small spray bottles and ration supplies for guests who are in panic mode.

Its very important that people support their local economies as much as they are comfortable so that this scare doesn't decimate it. There is not evidence that you can get it from cooked food, so frequenting restaurants, coffee shops, etc need not fall out of your habits completely especially if they offer a carry out or delivery option. Likewise, if you are in a state with less than 100 cases there is no current travel advisory for those who are not in a risk group. I can speak only about the US, as I am not as familiar with the situation in other countries.

Keeping calm, washing your hands frequently and using appropriate caution is the best course of action.

[Dawn81]

@John1574 @Laura2592 @Sarah977 . Just came back from shopping. I saw signs of panic shopping everywhere. Aldi was closed sign said they have only day time hours, (till 5:00 P.M.) because they need to stock. No one, has paper towels, or TP, sanitizers, etc. Was at Trader Joes, many shelves cleaned out, no paper, items weren't lacking as much at Sprouts except for the lack of paper.  Also went by the 99 cent store and many canned staples are gone. All stores have signs limiting paper and water purchases to 1 or 2. It's insane! I disagree with John regarding the media. I don't think they're trying to minimize, rather I think they're stoking the hysteria and panic. I'm fed up all ready and cannot wait for life to get back to normal. I wonder when normalcy will return? 

[Sarah977]

@Laura2592  You may want to read this: https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-comparing-i... 

[Laura2592]

@Sarah977  actually with a title like that, I would not be inclined to check that out.  The point of my posting was to provide a calm, measured outlook.

Information from the CDC, NIH and WHO are the only resources I trust on this particular topic. I know there is a lot of emotion surrounding this topic and I appreciate that. I prefer not to get wrapped up in that. I understand this is serious and I hope that we can all keep calm and get through it.

[John1574]

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@Sarah977 

I can't say I like the website but from from what I can discern the reporting is legit. I've heard the same from the horses mouth of public health and epidemiological experts of which there are a few who tell the truth.

if you think the coronavirus is a conspiracy theory, just wait a few weeks, then get back to me.

The current mortality rate, across-the-board, in Italy is 10%.

People in their 20s are now coming down with it and being hospitalized.

Some people are tested positive, go through 14 days of Quarantine and treatment and get released only to test positive again a few days later.

It morphs, it mutates, it reoccurs.

It's like one of those bad horror flicks.

But no need to panic, it really only affects the vulnerable population of which 40% of the population is considered vulnerable. That would be 140 million people In the US.

But the majority of you don't have to worry. For some of you it will not be much worse than the flu.

For some of you, you will carry it for 4 to 14 days, spreading it around, but you will never have a single symptom of illness, you won't even know you ever had it, but you will leave a trail of infected people in your wake.

But there's absolutely no need to panic.

All you can do to protect yourself is to limit your exposure, exercise proper hygiene and follow all the appropriate public-health techniques you can master.

Misguided people will buy up products and hoard them out of fear and selfishness and ignorance. But we don't have to be of them.  Soon the stores will be replenished.

I predict that there will come a time when the hospital system is overwhelmed just as it is in Europe, and they won't be able to handle patients because we didn't test and because there are hundreds of thousands people sick, and when people start to really show symptoms of the virus, and can't get treatment, that's when we'll see real panic.

If you believe that numbers lie, that we're somehow immune to what the rest of the world is going through, well then, I hope you are absolutely right.

Slow the spread. Do your due diligence.

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[Cathie19]

Thanks @John1574 for your considered and realistic approach. 

I just wish for your countrymen and women, the real and basic right to be tested for free. 

You are right, people sadly hoard and panic buy out of fear. It sadly, is a part of human nature. It is often done not to be selfish, (although that is what it ends up being), because it gives them a sense of control over something to which they don’t understand or have control.

I haven’t hoarded, but I’m sensible enough to ensure I buy a couple of extra items for when we do go into self-isolation. For it will happen, as no one is immune, and Australia and New Zealand and all of the Southern Hemisphere,  hasn’t yet entered winter.....

[Marg11]

Yes, Cathie19, 

Like you, we always have extra supplies for our guests. He is probably in the 4%, has cancelled our trip, shops carefully and is offering our flat which was blocked, to current guests who had to cancel the rest of their travels. 

This morning he was off delivering a packet of toilet rolls to an elderly widow.

Let's look after each other, our guests and those in health care, retail and the police. 

[Sarah977]

@Laura2592  Regardless of the title, it's an article based on facts, not sensationalistic, written by a long-time health reporter. I wouldn't post a link to some click-bait panic writing.

[Laura2592]

@Sarah977I am sure that many will find it helpful, but I am being very careful about the information I consume on this topic. There is a lot of speculation and projections that are being bandied about right now.  People are scared. I get it. But as I have said, fear won't make this situation better. There are reasonable precautions that those who are not at risk can opt to take, and more stringent ones that at-risk populations can avail themselves of.

[Sarah977]

@Laura2592  I went to the city yesterday, couldn't be avoided, I had materials to buy for clients' projects for my upholstery business and also needed to go grocery shopping. I have to say, I was thinking in a way I've never thought before. I made sure to have sterilizing hand wipes with me, as well as Clorox surface wipes and a large bottle of water. I brought a Clorox wipe into the grocery stores with me and wiped down the handles of the shopping carts before I touched them. Then I used the hand sterilizers and water when I got back into my car. When I got everything home, I wiped down all the outsides of the items I had bought with the Clorox wipes, then immediately washed my hands and wiped the faucet handles.

Maybe overkill, and certainly time-consuming, but I'm 70 years old, so I'd best be safe than sorry.

I just wish the virus glowed florescent orange so we could see if it was anywhere around us.

[Wende2]

Sounds like me, I have to go out today.......florescent orange, just today I thought how nice it would be to have some kind of glasses that would show everywhere it was, then I thought....hell I'd never be able to afford those.

[John1574]

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@Sarah977  @Laura2592 

"but I am being very careful about the information I consume on this topic."

This could be because of "confirmation bias" : your subconscious wishing to read only that which reinforces what you already believe. In other words, you are attached to your beliefs and you only wish to hear things that reinforce your beliefs.

Confirmation bias is widely believed to be the cause of our polarization in politics.  People  live in a news bubble that reinforces what their beliefs already are.

It's always present in religious theology and in political ideology.

Confirmation bias, people.

We are all guilty of it. But it is no crime. just the human condition.

[Laura2592]

@John1574 I wish you the best.  

[John1574]

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@Laura2592 

Why, thank you, Ma'm.

And to you I wish, Good Luck.

[J-Renato0]

@Laura2592 

Thanks for the clarification. 

[Marie6065]

Hi,  would you rent a room in your home where there are close quarters to a travel nurse working at a hospital where they have 7 patients with the virus? My theory is that the nurse will be more cautious than an ordinary person. What is your opinion and advice?