Coronavirus fear vs reality

[Laura2592]

I am hoping this is helpful for some. We have 19 cases in Maryland and none in our county or the neighboring county, yet people are panicking in a huge way and acting like the world is coming to an end. I work for a very large bio research organization which has a much more measured, scientific and less chaos-driven response. I am happy to share some guidance and facts that we have been given.

There is an 18% mortality rate for those over 80. There is a less than one percent (we never like to say zero in statistics) mortality rate for children age 0-9.  70-79 the rate is 7.8%, 60-69, the rate is about 3.6%. 50-59, fatalities drop to 1.3%, and under 50 its basically between .02 and .01%. For those who are not immune compromised or over 60 this is not an illness that will be anything more annoying than a cold. This is not a normally fatal illness. Exposure will allow your body to build up its natural immunity but communities do not want everyone going to the doctor at once as it may overwhelm resources. You cannot get the same virus twice. You can get a mutated version of the virus but not the exact same one.

Anti-viral drugs need to be given in the first 48 hours after exposure in order to be effective. This class of drugs can have difficult side effects so if you can't pinpoint the exact exposure, you are better off resting, drinking liquids and limiting contact with those who may be in a risk category.

If you get sick, you normally see symptoms within 5 days of exposure but incubation period can be up to 14 days. In the US east coast we are in prime allergy season so sneezing and coughing is not necessarily a sign of this illness. A fever is the primary difference and should be taken seriously. If you don't have a fever you don't have this virus.

Buying or stealing toilet paper will in no way stop the threat of this virus. Choosing to socially distance (no hugging or hand shaking) is not a terrible idea if you are concerned about exposure. There is no evidence that the virus lives on surfaces for more than 3 days at this time, so staying at an Airbnb that has been sufficiently cleaned should not be an issue.  Flat and hard surfaces are more friendly to viruses than soft, cloth like surfaces. You can make a DIY cleaning spray by mixing 4 tablespoons of bleach with one part water. The CDC suggests using that or an ammonia or alcohol-based cleaning product.

Cancellations are really over the top for stays in April, May and beyond, and even the end of March. There is evidence that this type of virus will slow spreading in warmer months, so there is no need to take precautions to cancel trips months or even several weeks from now. In the US there is an advisory cautioning those to reconsider travel to places with over 100 cases. Currently this is California, Washington state and New York state.  The CDC keeps the most accurate map of the current confirmed case numbers. 

Hosts may need to be cautious with their cleaning supplies, water and other items left for guests. We usually leave everything out in our pantry but have had friends report that guests are stealing items en masse. Same with toilet paper. It might not be a bad idea to buy some small spray bottles and ration supplies for guests who are in panic mode.

Its very important that people support their local economies as much as they are comfortable so that this scare doesn't decimate it. There is not evidence that you can get it from cooked food, so frequenting restaurants, coffee shops, etc need not fall out of your habits completely especially if they offer a carry out or delivery option. Likewise, if you are in a state with less than 100 cases there is no current travel advisory for those who are not in a risk group. I can speak only about the US, as I am not as familiar with the situation in other countries.

Keeping calm, washing your hands frequently and using appropriate caution is the best course of action.

[John1574]

Amen to that, @Laura2592 

But you wrote the following:

"suffice it to say the information we have is considered to be the "last word.""

You have more confidence in what you have been told than others do. 

That is why a debate has grown up around your posts which I know were well-intentioned.

But when you say, "It was merely to present the facts I have about how this situation affects the majority of the population."  

I think many people disagree with the way you interpret the "facts you have".

And since when in this Democracy do we care only about "The majority of the population?"

I think you did a service in writing your posts, but I think you should rethink some of the things you believe and question some of the facts you've been told and come back with a more nuanced approach to the coronavirus.

I think the majority of the population needs to be very concerned about the coronavirus and follow all the recommended guidelines that have been given so far.

I myself have seen no panic anywhere. People simply trying to prepare for what may be coming because, let's be honest, we don't know what's coming.

We know what we know from history: that good public health practices will eventually knock this virus back.

Prevent the spread, protect you and yours.

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[Tara0]

Agree 100% with @John1574

[Sandra126]

Take care @John1574 , glad your wife is looking after you. 

[Cathie19]

This is very true @Laura2592 . We do need to be very careful. There is NO vaccine currently available.

To those who may be at risk of known diseases, there are many vaccines to reduce that risk. Such as, influenza (which changes annually under WHO advise), pneumococcal and meningococcal to name only three. Or we could add ADT (adult diphtheria and tetanus, or pertussis (whooping cough) Hepatitis B, etc.

May we also protect the financially vulnerable. What about the cost of medicine in some countries where it is not financially accessible? 

Sure,  there are bacteria’s and viruses occurring in everyday life, but they can often be more easily avoided, because they don’t become literally, a global concern. Yes, and this isn’t always the case and there are risks and less panic.

BUT governments are learning from China, which is why an expert team of Chinese are now in Italy, to assist. It’s about getting ahead of the game. The Covid19 game is changing daily. Literally! Remember the original mortality rate on average was 2%. That is now way higher as it is evolving and travelling across the globe.

What is important is that we KNOW this exists and although you may not be personally vulnerable, or many many others, please don’t underplay the worth of a life that could be saved, in those vulnerable or aged groups. You may not have meant it, but that is how your statements have come across. You are passionate about it, I get it, but  so am I!

But as a younger child now in my early 60s, with older siblings and friends young and old at risk, I have a lot more to lose, including on a flippant legal, a European trip where the path I was to walk has been closed. (The Camino)

When immunity or a vaccine is available for all,  then I’ll be willing to be less measured, and less protective of the herd.   🙂 

[Shelley-And-Jeff0]

@Laura2592

I hope you or a loved one doesn’t have a traffic accident at the peak when hospital services are overwhelmed.

[Sandra126]

@Shelley-And-Jeff0 , soon you might not be allowed out in your car so at least accidents will be less of a chance!

[John1574]

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@Michelle53 

Thank you for your post. I believe you've made the best point in this thread so far.

Even the mortality stats quoted by the OP are somewhat "ballpark figures".

People must understand that even a mortality rate of 3.6% is incredibly high, and I'm sure we all know someone we care about in that 60 to 69 age group.

Dr. Fauci, a leading govt. public health official, declared on TV a few days ago that the Corona virus is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.

I vehemently disagree with any attempt to minimize the impact that this pandemic will be having on us as a people, a country and the world population.

Once professional sport leagues cancel to the tune of billions and billions and billions of dollars in losses that should tell you something more than what the public health officials are telling you in order to minimize fear and panic.

Knowing what is going on and what steps to take are the antidote to fear and panic.

Remember, people are hoarding toilet paper and bottled water etc. etc. because they want to self isolate for a week or two.

Canceling schools is probably a mistake because now younger people who may be carrying the virus but without symptoms will be exposed in older people who are much more vulnerable.

Please, do not minimize the risks that are out there.

We probably have hundreds of thousands of people infected in this country right now and no one, I repeat no one, knows which way this thing is going to go.

Stopping the spread of the virus is the best thing we can do. The sooner the spread is stopped the sooner we will get back to normal, but it might take 18 months to two years.

It might be time to regulate our narrow interests and understand that somethings must be done for the greater good.

No panic, no fear, just stop the spread of the virus.

Good luck to all.

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[Cathie19]

Thank you @Michelle53  for your observation and considered remarks. 

Both Australia and New Zealand are using best practise to protect the herd AND slow the spread of this virus. It will happen, but flattening the curve and pressure on medical operations is vital.

Why?

Because it will reduce the number of fatalities in the vulnerable and older populations. I cannot understand how an 18% stat, or even a lower stat is considered acceptable here! What is this, a science experiment from a science fi movie? 

A cancer patient (of ANY age) has a stat of approx. 5.6% fatality, quite separately from what might be added with their age.

So now let’s even consider, a young mother in her thirties, say with cervical cancer undergoing treatment, with three children being considered dispensable because ...... “not many will die from this virus.” Wrong.....

Globally, cohorts of people have no built up immunity, with no real vaccination for commercial use, predicted till in about 18 months.

YES, you younger fitter individuals may just have minimal symptoms and may not know you have it. So out and about you go, passing that elderly person, who though not yours, are someone else’s  loving grandparent.

By the way, that mother you just passed in the fruit and vegetable aisle, with three kids hanging off her shopping trolley, who might look well, is also quietly undergoing chemo.

Opinions and stats like everything else, can be used well, or not. I’m using them too......

But I ask everyone to stay considered and responsible to the WHOLE community. Please @Laura2592, I understand where you are coming from, with no intent to upset, I get that, but please don’t use stats to underlie or downplay this very serious situation. It will cause complacency in some members of the community, placing others at high risk. Please,  just  don’t!

BTW: Will your local hospitals have the staff and the ventilators available to meet the needs of your local community when the virus reaches its peak with many acute cases of pneumonia?

Hypothetically,  I wouldn’t like my sister, my husband or my daughter to be the one chosen by an overburdened hospital system, to NOT receive a ventilator; because of the curve staying high and the exposure acute. A & E doctors in Australia are already practising intubation for this crisis.

[Suzanne302]

@Michelle53  THIS. This is why it's so important that we follow OFFICIAL sources like the CDC and WHO and health experts.

People like @Laura2592  who try to downplay things are doing a great disservice to society as people think anyone with an opinion is suddenly an expert on infectious diseases and managing pandemics.

No, we aren't worried that everyone is going to die, but we ARE worried that if we don't mitigate the impacts the health system will be overwhelmed and per the CDC, the way this virus spreads so rapidly those who ARE most at risk can easily unknowingly contract the virus and that is the worry. I'm not speculating because that is what's happening right now.

[Ann489]

@Laura2592   Thank you so much for putting things in perspective, Laura.  Our state currently has one confirmed case, yet, before this was even made public, people have been out panic-buying up everything imaginable; not a single roll of toilet paper anywhere to be found.  I am very concerned about our elderly neighbors everywhere who are now potentially facing a shortage of essential items because of this.  Please stop panic-buying and look in on your seniors to make sure that they are taken care of.

[Piotr48]

It is really nice to read something positive. I hope the virus goes away soon.

[Ute42]

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@Laura2592 

Very helpful information. Thank You.

[Mike-And-Jane0]

Am I the only person  having real trouble panic buying? The shelves are bare LOL

[Laura2592]

@Mike-And-Jane0  yes grocery stores are depleted.  Our neighbors cant get supplies they need for households with elderly members because people are buying everything for locking themselves in. 

[Helen350]

Pop up to West Cumbria @Mike-And-Jane0 ! We've got full shelves! : )