Demand down 29% in London...?

[Gerry-And-Rashid0]

Anyone else getting repeat emails telling them that demand is down significantly in their area, so you better take this opportunity to sign up for Plus, and they will waive the fee for the first year?

Well, we are close to 100% booked with BDC - who seem to have cornered a large chunk of Airbnb’s host and customer base. So I would say demand is well up on last year (due to exchange rate/weak pound). 

[Susan151]

@Gerry-And-Rashid0. Boston is down between 47% and 52%. I saw higher percentages in late 2018. Interestig numbers to say the least.

[Pete28]

Could it be that the Airbnb website is almost unusable since they changed to list everything by base price ?

Search at $60 get 300+ all of which are over $100. No way to order by price. I couldn't use it to book a trip at Xmas 😞

[Pete28]

Also what is BDC ?

[Susan151]

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@Pete28 wrote:

Also what is BDC ?

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Booking dot com

[Pete28]

Ah - I do love the way they hide the reviews, and 6/10 is rated as good ! I do see a few familiar listings in Seattle. 

[Susan17]

@Gerry-And-Rashid0 @Pete28 @Susan151

I've been closely observing Airbnb's performance, strategies and legal responses in various cities worldwide - London, Boston and Seattle amongst them - for the past several years, and I can tell you without hesitation, that the issue is not lower demand, or regulatory problems, or seasonal dips etc.

The fact is, for a long time now, Airbnb has been cannibalising its own markets through incompetence, inefficiency, unreliability, dishonesty and duplicity, and exactly the same destructive patterns have emerged in city after city - just sooner in some cities than others - like a global mexican wave.

Airbnb and their specially commissioned (and paid for) "reports" would have you believe that the company's stratospheric rise continues unabated, but the truth is, Airbnb adoption growth already plateaud in the US and Europe  in mid-late 2017, with Morgan Stanley subsequently downgrading Airbnb's projections for 2018 and beyond. 

At the same time, worries about Airbnb guests' safety and security are on the rise; the number of people concerned about such issues rose from 10 percent in 2016 to 26 percent in 2017. (2018 figures not available yet but even anecdotally, it's clear those figures will again rise sharply)

Additionally, the percentage of non-Airbnb users who cited concerns about privacy grew to 36 percent, up 700 basis points, and non-users worried about security grew to 13 percent, up 400 basis points. "This is surprising and potentially troubling for Airbnb's growth," the MS report stated. "Typically, consumers become more comfortable with emerging technologies as awareness/testing/adoption grow. This doesn't appear to be happening for Airbnb."

Then there's the shedloads of money being squandered on ill-conceived, poorly-implemented vanity projects that from the outset, have scant hope of success - Experiences, Plus, Collections, China etc etc. Little wonder the highly experienced and accomplished CFO, Laurence Tosi, bailed out last February, following a series of clashes with Brian Chesky, reportedly due to "a difference in philosophies" regarding the financial handling/future of the company. The CFO post remained unfilled throughout the rest of 2018, which saw many serious financial debacles including the Australian payouts fiasco, and the (still ongoing) co-host payments catastrophe. (Former Amazon exec, Dave Stephenson, was finally hired in late November as Tosi's replacement, but wasn't due to start work until last week. Wonder how that's going for him...)

And of course, there's the elephant in the room - the "professionalisation" of Airbnb. The one issue that nobody - least of all, Airbnb - wants to address or even acknowledge, yet it's the one factor that is single-handedly doing by far the most damage to the company's brand image, reputation and credibility with local governments, municipal authorities, the EU Commission and European Consumer Protection Authorities,  police forces, local residents, guests and hosts alike. And the rock on which Airbnb is perishing. 

@Gerry-And-Rashid0

As an 18 time superhost with hundreds of 5 star reviews and a faultless, long-term hosting record, who still can't get a booking for love nor money, I spent last weekend doing extensive searches in various cities to see if I could get a clearer, current picture of exactly what's going on, and why hosts like me are dying a death on Airbnb. Exactly the same picture emerged in every city I looked at. I'm going to put up another post about my findings later, but for now, feast your eyes on what Airbnb offered me at the very top of my London search (and it's a similar story in every city I checked). According to Airbnb, only 27% of listings were booked for the dates of my search (11-13 Jan), yet this was the best they had to offer me...?? 

https://abnb.me/v8ClXZO6nT

[Alon1]

Susan,

re. your final paragraph response to Gerry & Rashid.

Feedback on two counts.

Firstly, in view of your personal situation, fantastic track record but no current bookings (save for one small booking in March for one of your properties), the obvious suggestion is that you consider diversifying your operation. You have 2 entire flat listings, each with 4 rooms and 2.5 bathrooms, and at present are dependent on large groups booking the properties..Why not then experiment for a few months at least (the winter months to begin with) with one of the listings, by breaking it down to individual rooms? Of course you would be charging less per room, but if several rooms are occupied at the same time, you may still achieve good income. This would also place you in a different search bracket, but it's almost certain that in Dublin as in London there are considerably more people looking for single rooms than entire flats. -- You would further increase the chances of bookings if your minimum requirement was a single day rather than two at present. 

Indeed, you would have to seriously consider this option if your listings were in London precisely because of the 90 Day rule on entire flat listings. (Though it's only Airbnb that enforce this rule. As you know most of the other companies ignore it, and let Hosts self-regulate.)

It would of course mean that you would regularly have a number of smaller groups strangers sharing the property with other individuals or small groups..Yet this can work well from my experience and other London hosts, who have no choice but to exercise this option. 

The second issue is your experimental search for Jan 11 - 13th, that came up with this listing in NW2. Since you don't specify your search criteria, it seems you just made a general search, i.e. with no specific reason in mind. However, in my experience over 6 years, c. 75 - 80% of my Guests  limited their searches to my area NW3, with accompanying areas: Swiss Cottage, Hampstead, Belsize, because they have a reason to be here. In other words, the smaller part of my clients are general tourist types. --More specific, to your dates of search, I had two in the past weeks. One was for one night of the 12th, and another for 9 days.The former simply stated "I am interested in renting your room for next Saturday as i will be spending the weekend there." The latter was very particular, as she needed to find a place during a short renovation of her flat, with parking commensurate to the "Belsize parking zone is vital because otherwise I can’t park without paying." So the listing had to be "to the East side of Finchley Road." She had to ask the question, because I don't specify my address, and all she saw was a circle around the area.

Neither guest ended up booking. However, in the first week of January I had two bookings exclusively based on location, and this coming week I have one for the same reason, plus another returnee Guest. The same for the following week,

The result of my experience over 6 years, that I ignore all the Airbnb computer generated stats as Demand up or down, Price Tips, etc, because they've proved irrelevant, It has also quelled my fears about the 'elephant' i.e. 'the professionals' who I feared would swamp my kind of Hosts. Moreover, the vast majority of my bookings take place within a day to a month or two prior to arrival. I hardly get inquiries or requests for 3- 6 months down the line. This has taught me not to panic at the empty calendar for those months.

Otherwise, in the winter season especially, I tend to augment Airbnb with longer stays via Spare Room, where 'short term' tends to mean a few months. I've not even experimented with BDC as Gerry & Rashid.

In sum, I never take anything for granted, but this is the current situation which has evolved over the past 6 years, Consequently, I find your global research, though admirable for your endeavours, practically useless in informing my personal and specific situation. I believe many experienced Hosts operate similarly, because they have to adapt to their location and circumstances. It's the nature of the beast.

[Susan17]

@Alon1

I'm very familiar with the NW3/NW6 neighbourhods - I lived on Belsize Avenue for many years, and then in West Hampstead, just off West End Lane, for a further decade. Pitched up there at 17, all alone, fresh off the boat, and fell in love with  the area straight away. There's a big part of my heart that will always belong to north west London  🙂

Thank you for your suggestions. Unfortunately, listing the rooms separately as private rooms wouldn't work for me, for a number of reasons. To be fair, I should have listed on BDC etc a long time ago, but as both my listings are right next door to each other, in a quiet residential neighbourhood, and each has a 12 guest capacity, the fact that I would have no control whatsoever over who booked my places, seemed a terrifying prospect, and a sure-fire recipe for disaster (for both me and my lovely neighbours)

Also, my mum had a stroke on New Year's Day, 2018, so I spent almost all of last year running between home, hospitals and my parents' home down the country, so I wasn't really in a position to start getting to grips with new platforms, and all they entail. Consequently, I was out of town a lot, which would have made it impossible to deal with emergency situations, particulary those that occurred in the middle of the night.

Then again, as an early Airbnb adopter with an impeccable record, surely one could reasonably expect to have earned the right to fair and equitable placement and promotion in search rankings, rather than being constantly ghosted in favour of an endless rolling roster of devil-may-care newcomers, with five minutes hosting experience and a handful of mediocre/poor reviews. Isn't that how it usually works in an ethical, principled society - hard work, dedication and commitment get suitably rewarded? Not so with Airbnb, sadly. 

As for my research, it's almost entirely limited to the impact of  professionalisation of Airbnb on my own personal demographic - small, traditional, entire home hosts - and doesn't encompass private room hosts, so I wouldn't really expect it to be of any use to you.

In my former incarnation,  I spent 25+ years working Mayfair and Knightsbridge casino floors and latterly, running my own poker tournaments here in Dublin, so it's in my blood to never  take anything at face value, and to always observe closely for the nuances, the inconsistencies, the almost imperceptible sleights of hand that belie true, rather than stated, intentions. And since I sat in a Dublin pub drinking pints with Brian Chesky several years ago, and he promised all sorts of wonderful things in store for those who "partnered" with his fledgling company, I've been very  closely observing (and documenting) all things Airbnb. (Call me old-fashioned, but if someone looks me in the eye and tells me something will be a certain way, I expect them to keep their word on that, regardless of who they are, or what they become)

So you see, my research is (or at least, was) predominantly for my own benefit, and to satisfy my own inquisitiveness, rather than anyone else's. Call it my insurance policy, if you will. There's a great deal that I've learned over time, that I can't - and won't - post here, for obvious reasons. But what I can share, I will (even though I'm fully aware that it does me no favours whatsoever) because people have every right to know the finer details of what they're dealing with. Whether or not anyone takes on board what I have to say, is entirely up to them, but I will say this - I never, ever post anything that I can't back up 100%, or mention facts that I haven't checked, and double-checked, from a number of sources. 

As for adapting to changing circumstances... well, as it happens, that's exactly what I'm doing at the moment. I was approached early last year about writing a book on my experiences and adventures as an Airbnb host. At the time, I flatly refused, but as the year progressed, and my bank account drained, I was left with no option but to reconsider. To my enormous surprise, I now have three separate parties interested, so yeah, I think the time has definitely come to embrace new endeavours 🙂

[Rebecca181]

@Susan17 Forgot to add in my last message (which I hope you get - you know how you and I and a few others fail to receive most of our tags and notification) that I am very happy to hear of the great interest in your book-to-be - And do alert us all here when it is published, I will be one of the very first to purchase it! Might I dare hope for a signed copy....? : >)

[Susan17]

@Rebecca181

I'd be happy to deliver it in person! As it happens, I'd saved your "Are Traditional Hosts No Longer Valued by Airbnb?" thread back when you first posted it, and I looked it up just a few days ago when I was doing some work on the book, along with Ute's "Guantanamo" thread! Two of the most informative posts ever on the CC 🙂

[Rebecca181]

@Susan17 Indeed, even I must (most immodestly) admit that my post on traditional hosts (and the Titanic-like fate that awaited them) was freakishly prescient. I am glad that you were able to find it amid the flotsam and wreakage over a year later!

[Alon1]

Susan,

Firstly, I'm puzzled by your comment 'I would have no control whatsoever over who booked my places....'

You would certainly have more control without Instant Book.

You could limit to two small groups per house at any one time, and each would have En-suite.

My experience is that by and large guests have mingled very well with each other or politely avoid one other with no problems.

In any case, everyone is busy doing there own thing.

Moreover, midnight emergencies have been incredibly rare. I only recall one, also unfortunately involving my next door neighbour.

Otherwise, I always stress the importance of respecting my downstairs neighbours.

You might also consider appointing a co-Host when you can't be present.

However, it rather seems your principal obstacle looms on the horizon with the potential change in Dublin law this summer as I read on another post, limiting your city to live-in hosts  if I understood correctly?

Secondly, I was wondering when someone would research and write a detailed book on Airbnb Hosting.

However, I imagined it would be an endless and exhausting exercise, at least if one was to gauge the experiences of Hosts in this global market.

Though you rather seem to be focused on a critique of the mechanism & machinations of the organization and its evolution, which will surely be enlightening.

I for one would certainly be appreciative of such a work as an historical researcher & writer.

(For the past decade I've been busy researching for a book on British & Allied POWs in Auschwitz, 1943-45.)

Consequently, like others who have already commented, we wait your publication with interest.

Best Wishes!

[Mark116]

@Susan17  It's all so unfortunate, I don't think I've ever seen a company lose it's way so quickly. 

I have recently been wondering about the 4.7 minimum, and it occurred to me that this might be a deliberate marketing ploy on airbnb's part...since the best hotels in the world usually are only about 4.5, their idea may be that airbnbs will always rank higher, so they are thinking people will see these super high ratings and come to the platform--oh look, all these listings are 4.9, must be perfect, let's book.  The problems with the review system are so obvious and have gone on for so long, it seems impossible then that airbnb isn't using the rating system deliberately with purpose, because, ya know, we hosts are a dime a dozen, there will always be a new batch of people desperate for the 5.0 review.

I also think it's possible that the number of guests searching having dropped may be directly linked to how complicated and cluttered the web site has become, I thought for a while it may be a political effect here in the US, but it seems like searches are alleged to be down almost everywhere, so it's not about politics.  Certainly, the last couple of times I've searched for a place for myself it was SO labor intensive, and unrewarding, first having to scroll by all the random 'collections' and 'experiences' and 'restaurants' and then plus constantly popping it, and when finally getting some listings they all looked alike IkeaPotteryBarnWestElm clones.

[Rebecca0]

@Susan17  Thank you very much for sharing all the information from your research particularly, as you say, it may not do you any favours.   I remember you well (!) from the old community airbnb groups and you were always ahead of the game.   Many of the predictions you made back then have come true.  To anyone that has doubts:  Susan REALLY knows what she's talking about.

Regarding your search results, can you say how you get around the mystical algorithm where everyone gets a different result depending on their history and all that personal data gathered from goodness knows where?  Even doing an incognito search on different devices doesn't convince me that results are not skewed in some way.   I'm not in any way implying your conclusions are invalid, by the way, it's an honest question from someone who is not super tech-savvy and possibly a bit paranoid!

As for the book, yes please do it!  You are a born writer.